| Gold $5,048.10 -31.00
Silver $81.04 -2.82
Platinum $2,055.80 -83.90
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| THE PHYSICAL PAPER MONEY SUPPLY HITS NEW RECORD OF 22.4 TRILLION!! |
| The U.S. M2 money supply hit a new record high of approximately $22.4 trillion to $26.7 trillion in late 2025/early 2026, driven by rising bank deposits and money market funds, marking a reversal of previous tightening. This surge, the largest since 2021, suggests renewed liquidity growth, potentially signaling future inflationary pressures. Key Details on the M2 Record: Record High: By December 2025, M2 surpassed its previous peak of $21.9 trillion (March 2022), with reports placing it between $22.4 and $26.7 trillion. Rapid Growth: The money supply surged by over $1.65 trillion in 2025 alone, marking the third consecutive annual gain and reversing a contraction that occurred between 2022 and 2023. Driver: The increase is heavily driven by rapidly rising bank deposits and inflows into money market funds. Context: This growth follows a period of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening intended to reduce the money supply, which has now turned around to show renewed expansion. Implications: Inflationary Concerns: With M2 rising, some analysts fear that the lag between money supply growth and consumer price inflation (typically 12–18 months) could lead to renewed, higher inflation, following an increase in CPI to 2.9% in January 2026. Economic Impact: The surge suggests increased liquidity in the financial system, which may affect, or be caused by, changing interest rate policies and economic activity. 3/13/2026 |
| MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT TO RAMP UP PRICE INFLATION!! |
| The Iran war (2026)
has immediately driven up global oil and gas prices, threatening to significantly elevate U.S. and European inflation rates. Analysts project a potential >1 percentage point increase to inflation and reduced economic growth if oil prices remain around 100 a barrel. The conflict disrupts shipping, increases food costs, and threatens to reverse recent, hard-won progress in taming consumer prices. Key Impacts of the 2026 Iran War on Inflation: Energy Price Surge: The conflict has reignited fears of a 2022-style energy crisis, with immediate increases in oil and gas prices. Widespread Goods Inflation: Rising oil prices cascade through the economy, making air travel, shipping, and food more expensive. Prolonged Economic Impact: A sustained conflict could cause global inflation to rise by approximately two percentage points, with U.S. inflation potentially exceeding 4% in 2026. Economic "Butterfly Effect": The conflict threatens to keep inflation elevated for years, putting pressure on central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer. Supply Chain Disruptions: The war, particularly in a critical region, threatens to disrupt shipping lanes and exacerbate existing, post-pandemic supply shortages. Historical and Broader Context: Similarities to Past Conflicts: The situation mirrors the inflationary effects of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which drove up global energy and food prices. Systemic Risk: War generally causes inflation due to the destruction of resources, increased government spending, and reduced supply of goods, as seen in historical conflicts. Limited Impact of Past Controls: Historical attempts to manage wartime inflation, such as in WWII and the 1970s, showed that price controls often lead to shortages and subsequent price surges, not long-term stability. 3/12/2026 |
| SILVER SHORTAGES CONTINUE IN LONDON "LBMA"!! |
| Physical silver shortages persist in London as of March 2026, with the market facing a sixth consecutive year of global supply deficits, driving prices to record highs. London vault "free float" inventory has dropped by 75% since 2019, while strong demand from ETFs, India, and industrial sectors like AI data centers continues to drain available supply. Key Aspects of the London Silver Shortage: Shrinking "Free Float": While headline inventory figures in London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vaults exist, much is already committed to ETFs, leaving only about 147-185 million ounces of unallocated "free float" available for new, immediate, or "prompt" delivery. Persistent Deficit: Global silver demand is outstripping supply, with 2026 projected to be the sixth consecutive year of deficit, potentially exceeding 100 million ounces. Industrial & Investment Demand: Demand is driven by record solar panel consumption and rapid AI data center expansion. Record Highs & Volatility: The squeeze has caused silver prices to reach record highs (above $50/oz in late 2025 and upwards of $80-$100+ in early 2026). Market Stress Indicators: Silver lease rates have surged, and the London-New York price spread has widened, reflecting severe physical tightness. The underlying structural shortage remains a significant concern for the market. 3/11/2026 |
| AUTOMOBILE REPOSESSIONS HIT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE 2008 FINANCIAL CHRISIS!! |
| Automobile repossessions have surged to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, with
over 1.73 million vehicles repossessed in 2024 and projections indicating this could exceed 3 million by the end of 2025. This crisis is driven by record-high car prices, high interest rates, and soaring cost-of-living expenses. Key Drivers and Data Trends: Surging Numbers: Repossessions in 2024 were up 43% compared to 2022, reaching 1.73 million, the highest since 2009. Subprime Delinquencies: Auto loan delinquencies for subprime borrowers have reached a record high, surpassing 2008 crisis levels. Affordability Crisis: Average monthly payments for new cars exceeded $745, with used cars at $521. Negative Equity: Many consumers are facing severe negative equity—owing more on the car than it is worth—due to high-interest loans on inflated vehicle prices. Longer Loan Terms: Increased prevalence of 7-year or longer loans (84–96 months) has led to higher, unsustainable debt loads. Impact on Consumers: Continued Debt: Even after a car is repossessed and sold, consumers often still owe thousands of dollars in outstanding, balances and fees. Economic Pressure: he rise in repossessions reflects deep consumer stress, with many households struggling to balance car payments with rising rent, mortgage, and grocery costs. 3/10/2026 |
| U.S. WAR WITH IRAN TO COST 1 BILLION PER DAY!! |
| The ongoing conflict with Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, is exerting significant pressure on U.S. federal finances. Analysts estimate the direct military cost of the war is currently $1 billion per day. Direct Fiscal Impact: The war's immediate costs are driven by high-intensity operations and munitions consumption. Daily Spending: Estimates range from $800 million to $2 billion per day. Total Spent: As of March 9, 2026, total military outlays for the conflict have surpassed $5.7 billion. Unbudgeted Costs: Most of these expenses—roughly $3.5 billion in the first 100 hours—were not part of the initial FY2026 budget, likely requiring an emergency funding request from the Pentagon. National Debt Context (March 2026): The war occurs against a backdrop of already rising national debt! Current Debt Level: The total gross national debt reached $38.87 trillion as of March 5, 2026. Debt Growth Rate: Prior to the escalation, the debt was increasing by approximately $7.23 billion per day. Interest Burden: Annual interest payments on the debt now exceed $1 trillion, accounting for about 15% of total federal spending. Budget Outlook: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected a $1.9 trillion deficit for FY2026 even before accounting for sustained major combat operations. Economic and Market Risks: The conflict has introduced broader economic variables that could further impact the debt. Borrowing Costs: The 10-year Treasury note yield has risen back above 4%, increasing the cost for the government to finance its debt. Energy and Inflation: Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent Crude prices over $110 per barrel, threatening to reignite inflation and slow economic growth. Defense Spending Shift: President Trump has proposed increasing the 2027 defense budget to $1.5 trillion, a nearly 50% increase that could add an estimated $5.8 trillion to the debt over a decade! 3/9/2026 |
| U.S. TREASURY YEILDS CONTINUE RISE IN THE FACE OF FED RATE CUTS!! |
| U.S. Treasury yields are rising despite Federal Reserve rate cuts, driven by stubborn inflation, massive fiscal deficits, and a resilient economy, resulting in a 10-year yield reaching a 4.79% peak in early 2025. This divergence means investors are demanding higher long-term compensation despite lower short-term policy rates. Key Reasons for Rising Yields with Rate Cuts: Sticky Inflation & Economic Growth: Persistent inflation pressures, often fueled by rising energy costs, make it difficult for the Fed to significantly lower rates, keeping upward pressure on long-term yields. Massive Debt Issuance: Large, growing U.S. budget deficits require increased Treasury issuance, forcing the market to demand higher yields to absorb the supply. Term Premium Restoration: Investors are requiring higher compensation for the risk of holding long-term bonds compared to shorter-term, policy-driven debt, particularly during times of geopolitical tension. This environment has caused a "higher for longer" sentiment in the bond market, where 10-year yields may remain elevated despite the Fed easing, potentially heading toward 4.5%. 3/6/2026 |
| SINGAPORE SEEKING TO SET PRECIOUS METALS PRICE IN ASIA!! |
| As of March 2026, Singapore is accelerating efforts to establish itself as a premier regional gold trading hub by collaborating with major international and local banks to enhance market liquidity and price discovery, particularly for Asian business hours. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has engaged with institutions including JPMorgan Chase & Co, UBS Group AG, ICBC Standard Bank, and local banks DBS, UOB, and OCBC to advance these goals. Key details regarding this initiative include: Focus on Price Discovery: The efforts aim to establish a more robust U.S. dollar price discovery mechanism for gold during Asian trading hours to better track regional demand. Key Partners: In addition to local banks, JPMorgan and UBS—major global market makers in bullion—are involved in these discussions. Strategic Shift: Reports indicate that by late 2025, JPMorgan was planning to relocate its core precious metals trading team to Singapore. Growing Demand: The initiative comes as gold investment demand in Singapore surged to record highs in 2025, despite record-high prices, with significant inflows from wealthy individuals. This push aligns with a broader strategy to solidify Singapore's position as a key Asian hub for the trading, refining, and storage of precious metals. 3/5/2026 |
| SILVER PRICE UP FOR 10 STRAIGHT MONTHS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY!! |
| Based on reports from early 2026, silver has achieved a historic milestone by rising for
ten consecutive months, marking the longest monthly winning streak on record. This unprecedented rally saw silver prices more than double in a span of roughly 11 months, with prices surging over 180% year-over-year to break past $65 an ounce by late 2025 and rising even further in early 2026. Key Drivers for the Historic Silver Streak: Safe-Haven Demand: Silver has become a preferred hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Industrial Demand & Shortages: A critical factor is the, now 60% of total demand, industrial use of silver in electronics, electric vehicles (EVs), and AI-related data centers. This coincides with a persistent, multi-year supply deficit. "Dual-Natured" Asset: Analysts highlight that silver is outperforming gold because it benefits from both investment demand and rising industrial demand, particularly with the acceleration of green energy technologies. Record-Setting Performance: By the end of February 2026, Comex silver reached new heights, with some reports noting prices reaching or surpassing $90 an ounce, cementing its 10th straight green month. 3/4/2026 |
| CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCIES HITTING LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE THE 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS!! |
| Credit card delinquencies are accelerating, with serious, 90-day+ delinquencies approaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis by early 2025, notes
this article from TheGuarantors. Driven by high inflation, rising interest rates, and increased debt loads, over 1 in 8 credit card accounts were 3+ months behind on payments in early 2025. The surge is particularly severe among 2021-2023 account vintages, report this article from Consumerfinance.gov and this article from TheGuarantors. Key Trends in Delinquency Acceleration: Surging Delinquency Rates: Serious delinquencies (90+ days) nearly doubled from 1.6% in 2021 to over 3% in late 2024, with rates continuing to rise in 2025, according to this article from TheGuarantors and this article from FICO. Post-Pandemic Vintages: Cards originated in 2021–2023 are defaulting faster, with 8% becoming delinquent within two years, compared to four years for older vintages, say this article from Consumerfinance.gov. Wide Demographic Impact: Delinquency increases are widespread, affecting 85% of U.S. counties, notes this article from Urban Institute. Notably, the highest-income 10% of ZIP codes saw a 73% relative increase in delinquencies between Q2 2022 and Q1 2025, according to this article from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Primary Drivers: Inflation & Cost of Living: Persistent inflation has eroded consumer purchasing power, making it harder to cover daily expenses, says this article from TheGuarantors. High Interest Rates: Average APRs are above 21–22%, the highest since 1994, making it difficult for consumers to pay down balances, reports this article from TheGuarantors. Increased Debt Load: Total credit card balances reached $1.14 trillion, notes this report from Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 3/3/2026 |
| INDIA TO MOVE AWAY FROM WESTERN PRICE SETTING OF MINERALS AND METALS!! |
| India is actively transitioning away from Western-dominated benchmarks for metal and mineral pricing, aiming to establish its own, more transparent, and domestic-oriented valuation systems to better reflect local market conditions and enhance strategic autonomy. This shift is marked by significant changes in precious metals, base metals, and critical minerals. Key Changes and Initiatives: Gold and Silver Pricing (Effective April 1, 2026): India’s market regulator, SEBI, has directed mutual funds and ETFs to stop using the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) prices for valuing their physical gold and silver holdings. Instead, they will use domestic polled spot prices from recognized Indian stock exchanges. National Minerals Exchange (Proposed 2025): The Indian government has planned a new metal and mineral trading exchange—similar to the London Metal Exchange (LME) or Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)—to set prices for commodities like aluminum, copper, and iron ore through competitive bidding. Reduction in Import Duties: The government has recently slashed the base import prices for gold and silver to reduce the customs duty burden, essentially redefining the cost of these metals to reflect current market realities rather than solely relying on high, volatile international benchmarks. Reasons for the Shift: Reduced Dependence on Foreign Benchmarks: Current pricing for metals is often pegged to LME/London prices, which do not always reflect Indian demand-supply situations. Transparency and Efficiency: The new exchange aims to replace "opaque" or self-declared pricing from mining companies with real-time, electronic transactions. Economic Strategy: The move aims to curb volatility and ensure that the Indian industry, especially in the context of rising industrial consumption, is not impacted by foreign market manipulation. Addressing Local Scarcity: Recent surges in premiums for metals like silver in India, coupled with tight global supplies, forced the government to, in effect, create its own market pricing and reduce reliance on international, particularly London-based, exchange inventories. Impact: Lower Duties: The reduction in base prices makes imports cheaper for bullion traders. Strategic Independence: These moves signal a broader effort to reduce reliance on Western financial infrastructure and establish India as a key, independent player in global commodity markets. 3/2/2026 |
| U.S. ONLY CREATES 181,000 JOBS FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR OF 2025!! |
| Based on February 2026 revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. labor market experienced its weakest year of job growth since 2003 (outside of the 2020 pandemic), with total nonfarm payroll employment for 2025 revised down to 181,000 jobs. Key details regarding the 2025 jobs data: Massive Downward Revision: The final 2025 total of 181,000 was a significant reduction from the initially reported, higher estimates, highlighting a much weaker labor market than previously thought. Comparison to 2024: This represented a sharp collapse in hiring from the 2 million jobs added in 2024. Concentration in Sectors: Growth was largely driven by health care and social assistance, while other sectors, such as manufacturing, saw significant losses. Negative Months: Several months in 2025, including August and October, reported negative job growth (net losses). The 2025 job market was described as "a lost year for American workers" by some labor economists. 2/26/2026 |
| CENTRAL BANKS TO ADD NEARLY 1000 TONS OF GOLD IN 2026!! |
| Recent analysis and forecasts for 2026 indicate that while central bank gold buying will remain structurally high, it may fall slightly short of the 1,000+ tonne mark established in previous record-setting years, although it will remain well above historical averages. 2026 Central Bank Gold Demand Forecasts: 755 Tonnes Expected: J.P. Morgan Global Research projects approximately 755 tonnes of central bank purchases in 2026. This is a step down from the 1,000+ tonne peaks of 2022–2024 but remains elevated compared to the 400–500 tonne pre-2022 average. Other Forecasts: Other estimates, such as those mentioned by World Gold Council data, suggest continued strong demand, with some projections aiming for around 800-850 tonnes. Key Drivers for Continued Buying in 2026: De-dollarization & Diversification: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China and India, continue to diversify away from US dollar-denominated assets due to geopolitical risks and to secure long-term stability. Geopolitical Risk: The freezing of Russian foreign assets in 2022 has prompted a long-term shift toward gold, which is physically held and cannot be frozen by foreign governments. Survey Data: Reports indicate that 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in 2026! The structural trend of high, consistent buying is expected to create a firm floor for gold prices, which analysts forecast to potentially reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. 2/25/2026 |
| SILVER'S BROKEN MARKET VOLUME MEETS STRUCTURAL DEMAND!! |
| The silver market is currently defined by a
"broken" volume dynamic, where traditional paper trading mechanisms (futures/ETFs) are failing to contain prices as they collide with relentless structural demand. The Structural Imbalance: Persistent Deficits: The market is entering its sixth consecutive year of structural deficit in 2026. Cumulative deficits over the last five years have surpassed 800 million ounces, roughly equivalent to an entire year of global mine production. Inelastic Industrial Demand: Over 50% of demand now comes from industrial sectors like solar energy (TOPCon cells), electric vehicles, and AI data centers. Because silver is a critical but low-cost component in these technologies, manufacturers must buy it regardless of price to keep lines running, creating a "hard floor" for the market. Supply Rigidity: Approximately 80% of silver is produced as a by-product of mining other metals (copper, lead, zinc). Higher silver prices do not immediately lead to more mining, as production depends on the demand for those primary base metals. Why the Market is "Broken": Paper vs. Physical Divergence: There is a widening gap between "paper" silver (futures contracts) and available physical metal. On the COMEX, registered silver stocks have fallen below 90 million ounces, while open interest (paper exposure) remains significantly higher, raising risks of a physical delivery squeeze. Volatility and Margin Shifts: To manage extreme price swings (silver hit $80+ per ounce in early 2026), exchanges like the CME Group have shifted margins to a percentage of notional value (9%). This forces "weak hands" out but often increases volatility as both longs and shorts are forced to liquidate during sharp moves. 2/24/2026 |
| U.S. PRICE INFLATION STILL RUNNING HOT!! |
| As of February 2026, U.S. inflation remains stubbornly elevated, with the core
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve's preferred measure—rising 3% over the year in December 2025 and 0.4% monthly, exceeding forecasts and signaling persistent, hot inflation. While the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled to 2.4% annually in January 2026, stubborn service and shelter costs continue to drive consumer price pressures. Key Inflation Data & Drivers (Feb 2026): Persistent Core Inflation: Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 0.4% in December from the previous month (up from 0.2% in November), making it the highest reading since February 2025. Sticky Consumer Prices: While headline CPI fell to 2.4% in January 2026, prices for essentials like rent, food, and services are still rising. Primary Drivers: Shelter costs remain a major contributor to the monthly increases. Additionally, increased demand for data centers is driving up electricity costs. Impact on Consumers: Despite a slight cooling in headline CPI, the high, persistent inflation rate is causing financial pressure for consumers. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: Delayed Rate Cuts: The persistent, hot inflation data suggests that the Federal Reserve may delay cutting interest rates. Current Fed Rate: The Fed left its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range in January 2026. Market Reaction: Markets are reducing expectations for a near-term rate cut as inflation remains above the 2% target. Expect your purchasing power to continue to erode away as the dollar loses value! 2/23/2026 |
| U.S. HAS TO IMPORT A MASSIVE 70% OF SILVER NEEDED FOR INDUSTRY!! |
| The U.S. relies on imports for over 70% of its silver consumption, facing a severe structural deficit as industrial demand—particularly for solar, EVs, and defense—outpaces domestic mining
. Global silver markets are in their sixth consecutive year of deficit, with 2024 seeing a 176-million-ounce shortfall and 2026 projected to hit a 67-million-ounce deficit. Key Aspects of the US Silver Deficit: Import Reliance: The U.S. imports most of its silver, with significant refining capacity concentrated in China, creating a strategic vulnerability. Industrial & Defense Demand: Silver is essential for solar panels (using ~20 grams each), electric vehicles, 5G networks, and military applications. Critical Mineral Status: Due to the shortage, the U.S. Geological Survey has added silver to the Critical Minerals List, prompting federal support for domestic supply chains. Market Pressure: Total 5-year cumulative global deficits (2021–2025) exceed 800 million ounces, forcing the market to consume above-ground reserves. Supply Constraints: The current shortage stems from low exploration budgets in 2015–2020, making the deficit difficult to resolve quickly. The ongoing, multi-year deficit, exacerbated by high investment demand, is driving significant price volatility and causing physical, industrial-grade silver to become increasingly scarce. 2/20/2026 |
| THE PRICE FOR SILVER IN LONDON AND ASIA ARE HIGHER THAN U.S.!! |
| Recent data from early 2026 indicates that the spot price for silver in Asia (specifically Shanghai) and London has been significantly higher than in the United States, creating a persistent premium for physical metal outside the US. This divergence is driven by a contrast between a physically driven market in Asia and a futures-driven "paper" market in the US, compounded by tight supply in London. Key Reasons for the Price Difference: Physical Demand vs. Paper Futures (US vs. Asia/London): US prices are largely dictated by COMEX futures, which are heavily traded, speculative, and often settled financially rather than through physical delivery. In contrast, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) reflects high demand for physical silver, often resulting in a premium for immediate, deliverable metal. Intense Asian Demand: China is experiencing immense industrial demand for silver (solar panels, electronics) and strong investment demand, leading to local shortages. Supply Shortages in London: London, a central hub for physical silver, has experienced supply squeezes, driving its spot price to a premium over US futures. Export Restrictions (China): New policies in China requiring licenses for silver exports have limited supply, further driving up local prices. Value Added Tax (VAT) in China: The Shanghai price includes a 13%–17% VAT, which contributes to the higher, all-in price for physical, deliverable silver. Logistical Barriers: High costs and regulatory hurdles in moving physical silver between regions prevent easy arbitrage (buying low in the US and selling high in China) that would typically narrow the price gap. In essence, the higher prices in London and Asia reflect a premium for physically available metal, while the US price reflects a more paper-dominated market. 2/19/2026 |
| GLOBAL SILVER SHORTAGE PROJECTED TO LAST THROUGH 2026!! |
| The global silver shortage is projected to continue through 2026, marking a sixth consecutive year of structural market deficits driven by relentless industrial demand (notably solar and EVs) and constrained supply
. Massive cumulative deficits—roughly 820 million ounces between 2021 and 2025—are driving intense market tightness and propelling significant price appreciation for the metal. Key Drivers of the Ongoing Shortage: Industrial Demand Surge: Industrial use represents 55–60% of total consumption, with the green energy transition leading the way. Solar power alone requires an estimated 120–130 million ounces annually, a figure expected to rise with global solar capacity nearing 665 GW in 2026. EV Sector Growth: Electric vehicles require 50–100 grams of silver per unit, with 14–15 million EVs expected in 2026, demanding an additional 70–75 million ounces. Supply Constraints: Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, meaning supply cannot easily increase in response to higher prices. Chinese Strategic Action: China's reclassification of silver as a strategic material has resulted in tightened export licenses, reducing global market availability. Market Outlook: Persistent Deficit: The market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2026, with the Silver Institute confirming a fifth successive deficit in 2025 of approximately 95 million ounces. Investment & Price Impact: Investment demand remains strong, with some market analyses predicting significant price breakouts due to the widening supply-demand gap. Industry Impact: The ongoing deficit is forcing a shift in the market, with industrial users and investors struggling to secure physical silver, as seen by high demand in 2024 and 2025. 2/18/2026 |
| U.S. GOVERNMENT REDUCES JOBS BY NEARLY 1 MILLION AGAIN!! |
| In 2025-2026, the U.S. government implemented significant workforce reductions, with downward revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicating that
job growth between March 2024 and March 2025 was reduced by 911,000, revealing a much weaker job market than initially reported. Separately, over 300,000 federal jobs were cut, making the government the top sector for layoffs. Key details regarding the reduction of jobs: Massive Downward Revision: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) downwardly revised job growth for the year ending March 2025 by 911,000, reducing the total from 584,000 to 181,000. Federal Workforce Cuts: Reuters reports that the U.S. federal workforce dropped to its lowest level in at least a decade. Federal News Network notes that over 300,000 federal jobs were cut by late 2025. Agency Impact: The New York Times reports that major federal agencies, including the Departments of Education, Agriculture, and Housing and Urban Development, lost more than a quarter of their staff. Total Job Cuts (Private & Public): According to CBS News, employers cut over 1.1 million jobs through November 2025, with federal budget cuts and AI adoption cited as contributing factors. 2/17/2026 |
| GOLD AND SILVER ARE LONG TERM HOLDS NOT SPECULATIVE ASSETS!! |
| Gold and silver are traditionally considered long-term, foundational, or "safe-haven" assets rather than short-term speculative instruments, primarily due to their, historic roles as stores of value, inflation hedges, and portfolio diversifiers
. While they can exhibit short-term price volatility—often leading to speculation around their daily spot price—their primary function is wealth preservation over extended periods. Why They Are Long-Term Holds: Wealth Preservation & Store of Value: Unlike fiat currencies, which can be debased by central banks, gold and silver have retained their purchasing power for centuries. They are viewed as "disaster hedges" that maintain value during economic or geopolitical crises. Inflation Hedge: Gold, in particular, has a strong, long-term historical track record of rising in value during periods of high inflation and currency devaluation. Independence from Financial Systems: Physical gold and silver offer no counterparty risk, meaning you do not rely on a company's solvency or a government's promise to maintain your wealth. Portfolio Diversification: Because they often move independently of stocks, bonds, and real estate, holding gold and silver can stabilize a portfolio during market downturns. Institutional Demand: Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves at some of the fastest paces in decades, reinforcing its status as a long-term reserve asset. Why They Are Not "Speculative" (in the Traditional Sense): Speculation involves attempting to time the market to gain quick, high profits, often with high risk. Gold and silver are generally used to reduce risk over the long term, rather than chase it. 2/16/2026 |
| THE FEDREAL RESERVE OVERNIGHT REPO RATE SHOWING SIGHNS OF STRESS!! |
| The Federal Reserve’s overnight repo market showed significant signs of stress in late 2025, marked by a $29.4 billion surge in usage on October 31—the highest in over 20 years—signaling tightening liquidity and low bank reserves
. Repo rates have consistently traded above the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB) (3.90%), suggesting that quantitative tightening (QT) is constraining cash, with the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) acting as a crucial, though increasingly used, backstop. Key Indicators of Repo Market Stress (2025-2026): Surging Usage: In late 2025, the SRF, designed to provide emergency liquidity, saw a dramatic increase in use, with a $29.4 billion, or larger, spike on October 31, 2025, highlighting urgent cash needs. Rising Rates: Repo rates have remained consistently elevated above the Fed's IORB floor, a clear indicator of liquidity pressure. Low Bank Reserves: Bank reserves have hit 4-year lows (around $2.8 trillion), reducing the banking system's capacity to absorb shocks. Impact of QT: The reduction of the Fed's balance sheet (QT) is increasing the volume of Treasury securities in the private market, which raises the need for cash, forcing repo rates up. Emergency Backstop: The Federal Reserve is actively using its Standing Repo Facility to prevent these strains from disrupting the federal funds market. Seems Like what was happening just before we got covid! 2/13/2026 |
| SILVER SPOT PRICE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PHYSICAL MARKET!! |
| The silver spot price is primarily determined by paper-based, leveraged trading on futures exchanges like
COMEX, which often diverges from the physical market, especially during high demand. While spot prices influence retail premiums, physical shortages can cause premiums to rise, reflecting a disconnect between paper prices and immediate, physical availability. Key points regarding the divergence between silver spot and physical markets: Paper Market Dominance: The majority of silver trading involves financial contracts (paper silver) that are settled in cash rather than physical delivery. Diverging Trends: Spot prices, driven by speculative trading and economic factors, can fall, while physical demand causes retail premiums to rise and physical stocks to deplete. Physical Premiums: Retailers often charge premiums (often 10% to 30% or more) over the spot price to account for fabrication, storage, and logistical costs. Regional Differences: While Western markets focus on futures, the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange are more closely tied to physical delivery, often reflecting tighter supply-demand realities. Impact of Shortages: During times of high demand, the "spot price" fails to reflect the true cost of acquiring physical metal, as seen in market shortages where retail prices diverge from exchange rates. Essentially, the spot price is a benchmark for the current market valuation of financial contracts, whereas physical price is the cost of acquiring the actual metal, which can be significantly different. 2/12/2026 |
| BRAZIL ALONG WITH MANY OTHER COUNTRIES DUMPING THE U.S. DOLLAR!! |
| Brazil, alongside BRICS partners China and India, has significantly reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings, offloading over $61 billion in debt between October 2024 and late 2025
. This move is part of a broader "de-dollarization" trend aimed at reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar, increasing local currency trade, and diversifying reserves. Key details on Brazil's actions: Treasury Sell-off: Brazil has been reducing its holdings of U.S. debt, with significant drops reported in late 2025. Alternative Payments: Brazil and China are actively ramping up trade settled in their own currencies rather than the dollar, a trend accelerating among BRICS nations. Strategic Shift: The move is largely driven by a desire to diversify away from the U.S. dollar and mitigate risks from U.S. sanctions and financial policies. The trend is expected to continue in 2026, with forecasts predicting a "net bearish" outlook for the dollar, driven by factors like the Federal Reserve's policies and the strategic diversification efforts of emerging economies.
2/11/2026 |
| JP MORGAN RAISES GOLD TARGET FOR 2026 TO 6,300 PER OZ!!! |
| JPMorgan has raised its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to
$6,300 per ounce, citing robust, sustained demand from central banks and investors, even following recent high-volatility price corrections. The bullish outlook is driven by a structural trend of reserve diversification away from paper assets into real assets, with central bank purchases expected to remain strong, reaching around 800 tonnes in 2026. Key Drivers for the 2026 Forecast: Central Bank Buying: Despite, or perhaps because of, price volatility, central banks are expected to continue heavy purchasing, with 2026 demand projected around 800 tonnes. Geopolitical/Macro Factors: Persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical fragmentation are driving a "regime of real asset outperformance". Long-Term Strategy: JPMorgan remains "firmly bullishly convicted" in gold as a long-term portfolio hedge. Correction Opportunity: The bank advised buying into the price weakness experienced early in 2026. Comparison with Other Bank Forecasts for 2026: JPMorgan is not alone in predicting high gold prices by 2026, though its $6,300 target is among the most bullish: UBS: $6,200 Deutsche Bank: $6,000 Goldman Sachs: $5,400. The forecast, noted by MSN, Daily Express US, and Reuters, indicates a firm belief that the structural uptrend in gold will persist, as detailed in reports from Investing.com and Mining.com. 2/10/2026 |
| CHINA TELLS BANKS TO REDUCE AND EXIT POSITIONS OF U.S. TREASURIE HOLDINGS!! |
| On
February 9, 2026, reports surfaced that Chinese regulators have advised major financial institutions to curb their exposure to U.S. Treasuries. While not an official public mandate, the guidance from the People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration urged banks to limit new purchases and gradually reduce existing positions. Key Details of the Advisory: Targeted Entities: The guidance specifically applies to the investment portfolios of commercial banks and financial institutions. Stated Rationale: Officials framed the move as a risk-diversification measure to manage "concentration risk" and "market volatility," downplaying it as a geopolitical signal. Market Impact: Following the report, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.25%, and the U.S. Dollar Index dropped nearly 1% to reach a four-year low. Broader Context: The move coincides with a "sell America" sentiment in global markets, driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal deficits and a strategic pivot by China toward gold, which recently hit record highs above $5,500 per ounce. Strategic Pivot: Gold vs. U.S. Debt: As of January 2026, the People's Bank of China has reported its 15th consecutive month of gold reserve accumulation, reaching approximately 2,308 tonnes. Conversely, China's sovereign holdings of U.S. Treasury debt fell to roughly $682.6 billion in late 2025, an 18-year low. 2/9/2026 |
| LONDON SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION WITH A SPOT PRICE NEAR 90 DOLLARS PER OZ!! |
| London silver entered a, historic, deep backwardation in late 2025, lasting into early 2026, where spot prices significantly exceed future prices, signalling a severe shortage of immediate physical metal
. Driven by intense industrial demand (solar, EVs) and supply deficits, this rare market condition, with spot prices exceeding $90/oz, indicates a "physical squeeze". Key Aspects of the London Silver Backwardation (2025-2026): Market Structure: Silver usually exists in contango (futures > spot). Backwardation (spot > futures) signifies that the market places a higher value on physical silver available immediately than on future delivery. Physical Shortage: The London Over-the-Counter (OTC) market, the global hub, has experienced extreme tightness, with available metal in LBMA vaults being insufficient to meet demand. Extent of the Squeeze: The spread between spot and futures has hit levels not seen in decades, with reports indicating a $2-$3+ gap in October 2025 and ongoing shortages in early 2026. Drivers: Surging industrial demand (200 million ounces annually for green energy) coupled with constrained mining supply is creating a structural deficit, forcing buyers to pay high premiums for immediate supply. Implications:This situation suggests a breakdown of the "paper" market dominance, with risks of a short squeeze, high lease rates for borrowing silver, and higher, potentially triple-digit, prices. As of January 2026, spot prices were observed around ($94) per ounce, significantly higher than subsequent futures, confirming that the physical squeeze remains a critical issue. 2/6/2026 |
| JOBLESS CLAIMS HIT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2009!! |
| U.S. employers announced
108,435 layoffs in January 2026, the highest for the month since 2009, driven by restructuring, AI adoption, and cost-cutting, particularly in technology and shipping. Job cuts increased 118% year-over-year, while hiring plummeted to a 17-year low. Weekly jobless claims also rose to 231,000. Key Details on 2026 Job Market Slowdown: Highest January Since 2009: The 108,435 announced layoffs marked the highest January total since the Great Recession. Record Low Hiring: Companies announced only 5,306 new hires in January, the lowest for the month since Challenger, Gray & Christmas began tracking in 2009. Major Sectors Affected: Significant job cuts were driven by technology, including major reductions at companies like Amazon, and transportation with large cuts at UPS. Reasons for Cuts: Companies are citing the need to reduce costs, adopt AI technology, and a generally less-than-optimistic outlook for 2026. Continued Weakness: The 108,435 figure represents a 205% increase in layoffs from December 2025. 2/5/2026 |
| U.S. GOVERNMENT SET TO OPEN 12 BILLION DOLLAR CRITICAL METALS AND MINERALS VAULT!! |
| On February 2, 2026, the Trump administration officially unveiled
Project Vault, a nearly $12 billion initiative to establish the nation's first-ever strategic reserve of critical minerals. Modeled after the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, this project is designed to safeguard U.S. manufacturing—including automakers, tech firms, and defense contractors—from price volatility and supply chain disruptions caused by China’s dominance in the market. Key Details of Project Vault: Funding Structure: The project is funded by a record-breaking $10 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) and approximately $1.67 billion to $2 billion in private-sector capital. Target Materials: The stockpile will focus on rare earth elements and critical minerals like Silver, lithium, cobalt, gallium, graphite, and titanium—all essential for electric vehicle batteries, semiconductors, and fighter jets. Major Participants: Over a dozen companies have already signed on, including Google (Alphabet), Boeing, Lockheed Martin, General Motors (GM), and Stellantis. Strategic Purpose: It aims to provide a "relief valve" during shortages, allowing participating companies to draw from the reserve to maintain production during international trade disputes or supply shocks. Context & Next Steps: The launch coincided with a Critical Minerals Ministerial hosted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio on February 4, 2026, featuring delegations from over 50 nations. The administration is also pursuing international mineral deals with countries like Australia and Ukraine to further diversify its supply chains. 2/4/2026 |
| MANY SOVEREIGN MINTS HAVE REDUCED OR SUSPENDED SILVER COIN PRODUCTION!! |
| Sovereign mints, including the U.S. Mint, have experienced, or are currently experiencing, significant disruptions to silver production and sales
. Driven by extreme market volatility, rising spot prices, and logistical challenges, major producers have halted or reduced output of silver products to manage inventory. Recent reports suggest these issues relate to severe shortages in physical inventory and high demand. Key Details Regarding Recent Disruptions: U.S. Mint: The U.S. Mint has had to temporarily suspend the sale of certain silver products due to extreme price volatility, difficulty in sourcing blanks, and a 190 million ounce structural deficit. Global Shortages: Reports from late 2025 indicated that major world mints had halted sales due to a rapidly drying global supply. Economic Factors: Rising metal prices made it economically unviable for some, such as Germany, to continue producing certain silver coins, notes Euronews. Logistical Hurdles: Refining backlogs and high demand have created a "silver freeze," restricting the ability to turn physical, lower-grade silver into investment-grade, bullion, according to CoinWeek. Historical Context: The U.S. government largely removed silver from circulating coins in 1965, and in 2020, production issues arose due to COVID-19, note the U.S. Mint Coin Classroom (.gov) and Bloomberg.com. These combined pressures have forced several sovereign entities to, at various times, pause or limit their silver production and sales to the public.
2/3/2026 |
| M2 (PHYSICAL PAPER MONEY) SUPPLY CONTINUES TO RISE!! |
| The U.S. M2 money supply reached a record high of $22.41 trillion in December 2025, continuing an upward trend with a 4.6% year-over-year increase
. This renewed growth, following a period of contraction, signals a shift toward higher liquidity, driven by factors like increased bank lending and potential adjustments in monetary policy, potentially impacting inflation. Key details regarding the rising M2 money supply: Record High: M2 reached $22.4 trillion in December 2025, surpassing the previous peak of $21.9 trillion from March 2022. Growth Rate: The 4.6% year-over-year increase represents the fastest expansion since July 2022, marking a clear pivot away from the post-pandemic contractionary phase. Monthly Changes: M2 rose by approximately 0.40% from November to December 2025. Implications: The continued expansion in liquidity might pose risks to the Federal Reserve's inflation targets, as increased money circulation can fuel demand. Expect more inflation in all prices!! 2/2/2026 |
| U.S. DOLLAR DOWN MOST IN FOUR YEARS!! |
| The US dollar fell to a four-year low in late January 2026, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropping to 95.66–95.86, driven by investor uncertainty over trade policies, high debt, and potential Fed policy shifts. Despite the decline, the administration signaled tolerance for a weaker dollar to aid exports. Key Drivers of the Dollar's Decline: Policy Uncertainty & Tariffs: Concerns over the administration's trade and tariff policies are fueling the slump. Administration Stance: President Trump suggested a weaker dollar is beneficial for US business competitiveness. Macroeconomic Pressures: The dollar has faced pressure from high debt loads and fears regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve. Market Impact: The dollar index has dropped significantly, including a 2.6% decline over a four-day period in late January. Market Reaction & Outlook: Global Currency Response: Other currencies and assets like gold have reached multi-year highs. Outlook: While a weaker dollar can make U.S. exports cheaper, it risks increasing inflation and reducing consumer purchasing power. The dollar's decline marks a significant shift, as it had previously been a dominant force in global capital markets. 1/29/2026 |
| GLOBAL SILVER SHORTAGE ACCELERATES!! |
| The global silver market is experiencing an accelerating, structural shortage entering 2026, marking over five consecutive years of deficits driven by record industrial demand—particularly from solar, electronics, and AI—outpacing flat mine production. Vault inventories at COMEX/LBMA are at multi-decade lows, tightening physical availability. Key Drivers of the 2026 Silver Shortage: Structural Deficit: Demand exceeds supply by hundreds of millions of ounces annually. Industrial Demand Spike: Surging requirements for AI data centers, electric vehicles (EVs), and solar infrastructure are driving consumption. Supply Constraints: Most silver is a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, making supply unresponsive to price increases. Inventory Drain: Known, above-ground inventories (LBMA/COMEX) have been heavily depleted to cover shortfalls. Geopolitical Factors: New export regulations and potential trade restrictions on refined silver from major producers like China have tightened supply lines. Market Impact and Outlook: Price Surge: The scarcity has driven silver prices to new highs, with analysts projecting continued strength, potentially reaching $125-$150 per ounce in 2026. Investment Demand: Increasing investor interest in hedging against currency devaluation is exacerbating the squeeze on a small, highly liquid market. Physical Shortages: Reports indicate tightening availability and increased premiums on physical silver products. The market is shifting from a temporary deficit to a long-term, structural, supply-constrained environment, signaling a fundamental reassessment of silver's value as a critical industrial and monetary metal. 1/28/26 |
| GOLD AND SILVER HIT ALL TIME HIGH GLOBALLY!! |
| Gold and silver have recently hit all-time high prices globally, driven by increased geopolitical tensions (like US-Europe tariff threats over Greenland), a weaker U.S. dollar, and general economic uncertainty, pushing investors towards these traditional safe-haven assets. Gold has surpassed $4,900/oz and silver climbed over $90/oz, with records broken in various currencies as investors seek refuge from instability, notes MarketWatch. Key Factors Driving the Rally: Geopolitical Tensions: Renewed threats of trade wars between the U.S. and Europe over Greenland have heightened global instability, making safe assets attractive, reports BBC. Weaker Dollar: A declining U.S. dollar makes precious metals cheaper for buyers using other currencies, adding to their appeal, according to Yahoo Finance. Economic Uncertainty: Broader worries about the global economy and confidence in traditional U.S. assets are leading to diversification into gold and silver, says Reuters. Record Price Levels (as of mid-January 2026): Gold: Pushed past $4,900 per ounce, reaching new highs. Silver: Climbed above $90 and $94 per ounce, hitting record levels. This surge shows a significant shift in market sentiment, with investors prioritizing stability and inflation hedges over other assets like stocks and bonds, according to Reuters and MarketWatch. 1/23/26 |
| HONG KONG & CHINA BUILD GOLD SWAP AGREEMENT TO MOVE AWAY FROM WESTERN PRICE SETTING!! |
| Hong Kong and mainland China, specifically through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-18/hong-kong-to-sign-mou-with-shanghai-gold-exchange-chan-says, are building a major gold clearing and trading ecosystem, signing MOUs in January 2026 to link their markets for enhanced pricing, liquidity, and a central clearing system to better serve Asian demand, leveraging Hong Kong's "One Country, Two Systems" for international access and Shanghai's mainland strength to create a significant global gold hub. Key Developments: MOU Signing (Jan 2026): Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, announced an MOU with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) to build connectivity and a cross-border clearing system for gold. Central Clearing System: Hong Kong is developing a central clearing system for gold to increase efficiency, reduce risks, and improve liquidity, with plans for trial operations in 2026. Market Integration: The goal is to link HK's international trading hub with Shanghai's massive domestic market, creating a more unified price discovery and trading platform for Asia. Strategic Goals: This initiative aims to establish a robust gold ecosystem, attract more trading, and compete with established Western centers, leveraging unique advantages like Hong Kong's zero VAT and currency flexibility. Why It Matters: Increased Liquidity: Connecting two major markets creates deeper pools of liquidity for gold trading. Better Risk Management: A central clearing system offers greater security and efficiency for physical gold trades. Asian Gold Hub: Positions Hong Kong as a key international center for gold, complementing mainland China's growing role. Response to Demand: Addresses rising investor interest in gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks and dollar concerns, with Asian demand soaring. 1/22/2026
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| THE WORLD CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. DOLLAR!! |
| The world is gradually moving away from
U.S. dollar dominance (de-dollarization) due to geopolitical shifts, U.S. sanctions, and a push for multipolar finance, with nations diversifying reserves, increasing gold holdings, and favoring local currencies or alternative systems like BRICS for trade. Though the dollar remains central due to U.S. Treasury market liquidity and lack of immediate replacements. This shift sees more non-dollar trade (especially in energy), increased China-led currency swaps, and diversification of central bank assets, driven partly by concerns over U.S. political actions. Key Drivers of De-Dollarization: Geopolitical Tensions & Sanctions: U.S. sanctions, particularly against Russia, highlighted risks of dollar weaponization, prompting countries to seek alternatives. Economic Factors: A weaker dollar in 2025, coupled with U.S. fiscal concerns, has spurred diversification. Desire for Multipolarity: Emerging markets and nations like China and Russia promote alternative payment systems (like BRICS payments) and bilateral trade in local currencies. Diversification of Reserves: Central banks are increasing gold and other currency holdings, reducing reliance on the dollar in foreign exchange reserves. Manifestations of the Shift: Trade: More non-dollar-denominated energy contracts and bilateral trade agreements (e.g., Russia-China, India-Malaysia). Central Bank Actions: Reduced USD share in reserves (down from over 70% in 2000 to under 60%), increased gold purchases, and expansion of currency swap lines (especially by China). Financial Innovation: Growth in digital currencies and stablecoins as potential payment alternatives. U.S. Dollar dominance will continue to erode as financial systems diversify. 1/21/2026 |
| THE SPOT PRICE FOR SILVER IN CHINA IS 10-13 DOLLARS HIGHER THAN U.S.!! |
| The spot price for silver in Shanghai has been significantly higher, showing premiums of around $10-$13 per ounce over Western spot prices in January 2026, driven by intense physical demand from China's electronics and industrial sectors, a weaker Yuan, and tight global supply, indicating a major shift where physical markets are dictating prices over paper futures, with some analysts suggesting $100 silver is already a reality in physical form. Key Reasons for the High Shanghai Premium: Intense Physical Demand: China is the world's largest consumer of silver, and strong demand from technology and industry is outstripping available supply, pushing buyers to pay more for immediate metal. Weak Yuan: A weaker Chinese currency makes dollar-denominated silver more expensive in local terms, but the physical shortage is so acute that buyers are paying even more. Physical vs. Paper Market Disconnect: The large gap shows a breakdown in arbitrage between paper futures (like COMEX) and physical delivery, with physical supply being drained faster than paper markets reflect. Industrial Urgency: The premium signals that industrial buyers are struggling to find metal, suggesting that $100 silver is already the "real" price in physical terms, not just a speculative prediction. What This Means: Market Shift: The Shanghai market is increasingly setting the true price for silver, with Western prices expected to follow upward. Supply Stress: The wide gap reflects substantial stress on the physical silver supply chain. Future Outlook: Many analysts believe this gap indicates silver prices will continue to climb, with some predicting $100 silver and $5,000 gold are highly likely. 1/20/2026
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| INDIAN GOLD ETF'S HIT ALL TIME RECORD HIGH!! |
| Indian Gold ETFs hit all-time highs in late 2025, with record monthly inflows in December 2025 (around ₹11,646 crore or $1.25 billion) driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, rising gold prices, and investor shift towards safer, liquid assets, making 2025 a record year for gold ETF demand in India. This surge reflects increased investor interest, particularly from retail investors moving from physical gold to ETFs for portfolio diversification, pushing total Assets Under Management (AUM) to historic levels. Key Highlights: Record Inflows: Indian Gold ETFs saw their highest-ever monthly inflows in December 2025, capping a record year. Record Year: 2025 was a standout year, with cumulative inflows and assets under management (AUM) reaching historic highs. Drivers: Uncertainty in equity markets, rising gold prices, and the appeal of gold as a stable hedge propelled this demand. Shift to ETFs: More Indian investors, including younger ones, are choosing ETFs over physical gold due to liquidity, ease, and regulatory benefits. Global Context: This trend mirrored a strong year for gold globally, with significant inflows into gold ETFs worldwide. What This Means for Investors: Portfolio Diversification: Gold ETFs are seen as a crucial tool for balancing portfolios against volatile markets. Safe Haven Asset: Gold's role as a safe haven remains strong, attracting fresh investment during risk-off periods. This strong demand indicates a growing acceptance and preference for Gold ETFs as a modern, efficient way to invest in gold within India, as reported by sources like Seeking Alpha, The Economic Times, and World Gold Council data. 1/19/2026 |
| SILVER REMAINS IN BACKWARDATION!! |
| Silver remains in backwardation, a rare market condition where the spot price (immediate delivery) is higher than futures prices, signaling extremely strong, desperate physical demand (industrial/investment) against tight supply, a significant market stress indicator suggesting shortages and potential price rallies as buyers pay premiums for immediate metal. This situation highlights a shift from paper-driven markets to physical need, driven by tech/EV demand, strategic resource classification, and logistics issues, pointing towards potential long-term price increases. What Backwardation Means for Silver: Physical Shortage: Buyers need silver now for manufacturing (solar, EVs) or investment, willing to pay more for immediate possession than for future delivery. Market Stress: It's a major warning sign of tight physical supply, unlike normal markets (contango) where futures are higher due to storage costs. Strategic Importance: Increased government focus (US, Russia) and industrial use elevate silver's strategic value, adding pressure. Key Drivers of Silver Backwardation: Industrial Demand: Soaring needs in high-tech sectors (electronics, solar, EVs). Investment Demand: Investors seeking physical assets due to economic uncertainty. Logistics Issues: Global supply chain disruptions affecting timely physical delivery. Government Actions: U.S. designating silver as critical; potential Chinese export controls. What to Watch For: Escalating Squeeze: Some analysts see this as a prelude to a major rally or "squeeze" as physical stocks dwindle. Shift to Physical: A move away from paper-based trading to real-world supply/demand dynamics. In essence, silver's backwardation reflects a market where physical metal is scarce and highly valued in the present, a powerful signal of fundamental supply-demand imbalance. 1/16/2026 |
| PREMIUMS FOR SILVER IN ASIA SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN U.S. |
| Silver premiums in Asia have recently been significantly higher than in the US, driven by massive retail demand, supply chain disruptions, and speculative fervor, causing huge price gaps where Asian physical silver traded at huge markups (even 80%+) over paper futures. Unlike the more modest premiums for US coins like American Eagles, showing a major decoupling in the Asian market. Key Reasons for High Asian Premiums (Late 2025/Early 2026): Retail Frenzy: Intense buying from Chinese and Indian retail investors pushed physical prices sky-high. Supply Shortages: Physical silver vanished from markets in China, Japan, and the UAE. Speculative Demand: A "retail-trading frenzy" in China led to record premiums for silver funds. Arbitrage Opportunities: Massive price differences (e.g., $72 futures vs. $130 physical in Japan/UAE) emerged, illustrating extreme market dislocation. Embedded Risk: Geopolitical and institutional risks have added to volatility and physical demand. Comparison with the US: While US coins like American Eagles also have premiums (e.g., $10-$17 over spot), they are much smaller than the extreme Asian premiums. US markets saw typical premiums, whereas Asia experienced unprecedented, systematic decoupling between paper and physical silver, notes The Pareto Investor. 1/15/2026 |
| GLOBAL SILVER SHORTAGES PERSISTS INTO 2026!! |
| The global silver shortage is persisting into 2026, with demand consistently exceeding mine supply for several years, leading to significant cumulative deficits and drawing down above-ground stockpiles, driven by strong industrial (especially solar & EV) and investment demand against flat mining output and rising costs, causing market tightness and price volatility. Key Factors Driving the Shortage: Structural Deficit: Demand has outstripped supply since 2020, with cumulative deficits nearing or exceeding 1 billion ounces by late 2025/early 2026, notes the Silver Institute and MetalsFocus. Byproduct Mining: Most silver (around 71%) comes as a byproduct of other metals (gold, copper, zinc, lead), so high silver prices don't immediately spur more production, say The Oregon Group and GoldSilver. Falling Mine Output: Overall mine production has peaked and fallen, with issues in key producing nations and declining ore grades. Rising Costs: Higher interest rates and inflation have increased the cost of mining, limiting expansion despite deficits. Increased Demand: Essential for solar panels, EVs, electronics, AI, and investment, with solar PV demand rising significantly, notes The Oregon Group. Market Impact: Tight Physical Market: Above-ground inventories are shrinking, creating market tightness. Price Volatility: Supply bottlenecks, Chinese export controls, and shifts towards physical procurement (instead of paper) are causing extreme price swings, say Goldman Sachs analysts and Seeking Alpha. Government Activity: Governments are increasing demand, adding pressure, according to GoldSilver. Outlook: The deficit is expected to continue into 2026. This setup historically favors scarce assets like silver, potentially driving prices higher as companies compete for limited supply, notes GoldSilver. 1/14/2026 |
| CENTRAL BANKS NOW HOLD MORE GOLD RESERVES THAN U.S. TREASURIES!! |
| Central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries as a reserve asset for the first time in decades, a major shift driven by record gold buying amid rising prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and diversification away from dollar-denominated assets, with gold reserves nearing $4 trillion compared to roughly $3.9 trillion in Treasuries by late 2025/early 2026. Key Drivers for the Shift: Record Gold Purchases: Central banks have been on a buying spree, making 2023, 2024, and 2025 years of record gold accumulation, far exceeding long-term averages. Rising Gold Prices: High gold prices have inflated the value of these holdings, pushing them past Treasury values. De-dollarization & Diversification: Countries are seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and diversify reserves to protect against fiscal and geopolitical risks, notes Barron's. Safe-Haven Appeal: Gold offers stability, neutrality, and a hedge against inflation, making it attractive during times of economic uncertainty, say Reuters and Visual Capitalist. The Crossover: Data from late 2025 and early 2026 shows foreign central banks' gold holdings surpassing their U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996, marking a significant global reserve re-balancing. 1/12/2026 |
| CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUE TO ADD RECORD AMOUNTS OF GOLD TO THEIR RESERVES!! |
| Central banks are adding record amounts of gold to their reserves, with 2022 seeing the highest annual purchases ever recorded (1,136 tonnes) and 2023/2024 remaining historically strong, driven by diversification away from the U.S. dollar, geopolitical uncertainty, inflation hedging, and lower real yields, making bullion an attractive safe-haven asset. Major buyers include China, Poland, India, and Turkey, continuing a 15-year trend of net buying that signals a structural shift in global reserve management. Key Drivers for Record Gold Buying: De-dollarization: Central banks are reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar due to geopolitical risks and economic concerns, using gold as a neutral, universally accepted asset. Inflation & Interest Rates: Persistent inflation and falling real interest rates make non-yielding gold more appealing compared to interest-bearing assets. Inflation & Interest Rates: Persistent inflation and falling real interest rates make non-yielding gold more appealing compared to interest-bearing assets. Geopolitical Instability: Heightened global tensions and trade policy uncertainty boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Diversification: A broad strategy to balance foreign exchange reserves away from a single currency. Recent Buying Trends: Record Years: 2022, 2023, and 2024 saw massive inflows, exceeding 1,000 tonnes annually. Consistent Buyers: Countries like China (PBOC buying for over a year), Poland, Turkey, India, Singapore, and Brazil are significant purchasers. Shifting Landscape: Central banks have been net buyers for 15 consecutive years, reversing trends from the 1990s and 2000s when many sold gold. Impact: This sustained demand is reshaping the $12.5 trillion gold market, turning official sectors into major market drivers. Survey data indicates most central bankers expect gold reserves to grow further in the coming years. 1/9/2026 |
| U.S. GOVERNMENT INVESTS IN FIRST METALS SMELTING FACILITY SINCE THE 1970s!! |
| The U.S. government, primarily through the Department of Defense (DoD) under the Trump administration, is investing significantly in building the first major U.S. zinc smelter and critical minerals processing facility since the 1970s in Tennessee, partnering with Korea Zinc for a $7.4 billion project aimed at reducing reliance on China. This initiative, part of the broader Pax Silica Initiative, involves the Pentagon taking a 40% stake, creating hundreds of jobs, and securing domestic production of vital minerals for defense, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. Key Details of the Tennessee Project: Company: Korea Zinc. Location: Tennessee, utilizing former Nyrstar mining/smelting sites. Investment: Around $7.4-$7.5 billion, with DoD investing $1.4 billion for a 40% stake. Purpose: First new U.S. zinc smelter in decades, processing zinc, lead, copper, gold, silver, and other strategic minerals. Broader Context & Other Initiatives: Pax Silica Initiative: The overarching U.S. strategy to build domestic mineral processing capacity. Other Investments: The government is also backing rare earth and critical mineral projects in other states like Louisiana (ElementUSA) and Virginia (Nathan Trotter tin facility). Goal: Decrease dependence on foreign nations, particularly China, for essential materials. This will take years to have any impact! 1/8/2026 |
| COMEX LOSES 60% OF SILVER INVENTORIES IN THE LAST 4 TRADING DAYS OF 2025!! |
| The COMEX saw a massive drain of available (registered) silver in December, with over 60% claimed for delivery in the first four trading days of the month. This occurred in December 2025, not 2024, and was part of a larger trend of declining physical inventories driven by high industrial demand and systemic market vulnerabilities. Details of the Silver Drain: Timeline: The significant drain occurred in the first four trading days of December 2025, when over 47.6 million ounces were claimed for delivery, representing more than 60% of the total registered silver inventory at the time. Context: This was part of a persistent trend; COMEX vault inventories had already declined by over 73% since 2020, exposing vulnerabilities in the physical silver market. The surge in physical delivery requests was described by analysts as a "vault drain emergency". Market Impact: The demand for physical metal was driven by global supply deficits and the failure of the paper futures system to reflect physical scarcity. The high demand for physical metal occurred even as the "paper" price of silver experienced significant volatility and a notable sell-off in late December, partly due to the CME Group raising margin requirements to cool the market and protect short positions. This event highlighted a significant disconnect between the paper silver market (futures contracts) and the physical market, where industrial users like solar manufacturers are facing severe shortages and are demanding physical delivery. 1/7/2026 |
| CHINA RESTRICTS SILVER AND RARE EARTHS FROM LEAVING THE COUNTRY!! |
| China implemented new export licensing rules for silver starting January 1, 2026, treating it as a strategic material similar to rare earths, requiring government approval for most exports, a move that tightens control over the crucial industrial metal and impacts global supply chains, with figures like Elon Musk raising concerns about industrial reliance on the metal. These restrictions are part of Beijing's broader strategy to manage critical resources and respond to geopolitical pressures, rather than an outright ban, impacting companies needing government licenses to ship silver out of China. Key Details of the Restrictions: New Licensing System: China moved from a quota system to a license-based management system for silver exports. Strategic Material: Silver is now on par with rare earths, requiring state-authorized enterprises to get individual export licenses. Effective Date: The rules took effect on January 1, 2026. Impact: This affects significant portions of the globally traded silver supply, placing it under tighter government control. Context: The move follows U.S. designation of silver as a critical mineral and comes amid trade tensions, extending to tungsten and antimony as well. Why China Is Doing This: Economic Leverage: Using export controls as a tool in economic competition. Resource Security: Securing domestic supply of a vital industrial and technological input. Response to U.S.: Seen as a reaction to U.S. restrictions on Chinese technology, notes Trading Economics and CNBC. What It Means for the Market: Supply Chain Disruption: Potential for global supply shortages and price volatility, says Yahoo Finance. Industry Concerns: Concerns from industries like electronics, medicine, and renewable energy that rely heavily on silver, as noted by Fox Business and Morningstar. 1/6/2026 |
| CHINA AND INDIA OFFER PREMIUMS FOR SILVER DIRECTLY FROM MINING COMPANIES!! |
| Chinese and Indian industrial buyers and investors have been reportedly offering significant premiums for physical silver, including making direct deals with mining companies. This behavior indicates a tight physical supply and high demand driven by industrial uses and investment. Key Details: Direct Deals with Miners: Reports, including those cited by CNBC, indicate that buyers in China and India are bypassing traditional refinery supply chains and approaching mining companies directly. They are offering to purchase silver at substantial premiums, sometimes reportedly $8 to $10 above the global spot trading prices, to secure guaranteed physical delivery. Reasons for Premium: Industrial Use: Silver is a critical component in the clean-energy transition, particularly in solar panels and electric vehicles, as well as in electronics and medical devices. Strategic Stockpiling: China, in particular, has become a net importer of silver and is building strategic reserves, viewing control over critical metals as an economic and strategic priority. Physical Shortages: Both countries have experienced physical shortages, with Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices trading at a significant premium to Western markets. Investment Demand: Strong retail and institutional investment demand for physical silver in both countries has also contributed to the premium over global prices. Market Impact: This aggressive buying and the willingness to pay premiums are causing a decoupling of the physical silver market from the "paper" futures market, putting stress on global inventories and pushing up prices. China also recently implemented export restrictions on silver, which is expected to further tighten the global physical supply. 1/5/2026 |
| FEDERAL RESERVE INJECTS 30 BILLION INTO BANKING SYSTEM OVERNIGHT LENDING!! |
| The Federal Reserve injects billions into overnight lending via
repo operations (Repurchase Agreements) to add cash to the banking system, stabilizing short-term funding markets when reserves get tight, often around month/quarter ends. While not printing physical money, these operations (like the reported ~$30B+ injection on Oct 31, 2025) act like a temporary loan, selling Treasuries for cash, easing liquidity crunches from high Treasury issuance or other factors, preventing funding stress, and keeping markets stable. What Happened? Large Injections: The Fed recently conducted significant overnight liquidity injections, with around $29.4 billion on October 31, 2025, and similar large amounts (e.g., $25.95B on Dec 29). Mechanism: These are typically overnight repo (Repurchase Agreement) operations, where banks sell Treasuries for cash and agree to buy them back the next day, effectively borrowing cash. Why Did It Happen? Liquidity Needs: Bank reserves have fallen, creating a cash shortage in the banking system, making it harder for banks to get overnight funding. Market Stress: High Treasury issuance and quarter-end pressures can drain cash, causing short-term borrowing rates (repo rates) to rise. Fed's Role: The Fed steps in to provide liquidity and keep interest rates stable, preventing funding market dysfunction. When banks lend money, they effectively create new money, increasing the money supply, which can lead to inflation if this new money grows faster than the economy's ability to produce goods and services, creating "too much money chasing too few goods". Expect more to come!!! 12/31/2025 |
| SILVER BREAKS 70 DOLLARS PER OUNCE!! |
| As of Tuesday, December 23, 2025, silver prices have
officially broken above $70 per ounce for the first time in history!! We here at C.R. Gold & Silver would like to take a moment to thank our customers and wish you all a very merry Christmas. We will be back open on 12/29/2025. Thank you all for your loyalty and choosing us as your precious metal provider. We wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a safe and prosperous New Year. 12/23/2025 |
| PRESIDENTIAL ORDER WILL ALLOW SILVER INVESTMENT IN 401K PLANS!! |
| Significant rule changes are happening in late 2025/early 2026, driven by a Presidential Executive Order (August 2025) and regulatory updates, to allow precious metals like silver (and gold, platinum) as permitted assets in 401(k)s. Removing barriers and opening the door for broader diversification into these alternatives for long-term investors, though plan sponsors need to implement the new options. Key Rule Changes & Drivers: Presidential Executive Order (Aug 2025): President Trump signed an order directing the Department of Labor (DOL) and SEC, to update guidance and rules, clearing the path for alternative assets, including precious metals and crypto, in 401(k)s. Regulatory Re-examination: The DOL is re-examining fiduciary duties and asset allocation rules for alternatives, with guidance expected by early 2026, to facilitate these new investment choices. Inclusion as a Permitted Asset: This change moves precious metals from being a potential "collectible" issue (which often triggers penalties) to a formally permitted retirement asset, removing a major regulatory hurdle. What This Means for Investors: Diversification: Investors gain access to silver, gold, and other hard assets for better diversification within their employer-sponsored plans, alongside stocks and bonds. New Options: While not mandatory, plan sponsors can now offer funds or options that include physical metals or metal-related assets. Implementation Timeline: Financial providers will need time to update disclosures and logistics, so it might take time for these options to become widely available. THE WORLD IS CHANGING IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO INVEST ACCORDINGLY!! 12/22/25 |
| JP MORGAN FLIPS FROM SHORT TO LONG ON ITS 200 MILLION OZ SILVER POSITION!! |
| J.P. Morgan has reportedly
covered its paper silver short positions and gone long on silver, holding a significant physical stockpile. This shift in position coincides with a recent surge in silver prices to record highs in December 2025. J.P. Morgan's Shift in Stance: From Short to Long: Reports indicate that J.P. Morgan has eliminated its 200-million-ounce paper short position in silver futures, a historic move that leaves the bank with zero short contracts. The bank is now reportedly long in both physical and paper silver, positioning itself to potentially benefit from a significant upside movement in the market. Massive Physical Holdings: J.P. Morgan is the world's largest holder of physical silver, having amassed a stockpile of over 750 million ounces. This large physical position, combined with the shift in its futures market stance, is seen by some analysts as a strong bullish signal for the metal. Bullish Outlook: J.P. Morgan Global Research has a generally bullish outlook on precious metals, including silver. Other market analysts projecting prices could go as high as $100 per ounce by the end of 2026 amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Market Context:Record Highs: Silver prices have seen a dramatic increase in 2025, reaching a record high above $66 per ounce in December, more than 100% growth for the year. Supply and Demand: The price surge is driven by a combination of tight supply, increasing industrial demand (particularly from the solar industry), and robust investor interest seeking a safe haven asset. Investors are closely watching these developments as J.P. Morgan's actions and the current market dynamics could signal an extended period of potential for further price increases in the silver market. K 12/17/2025 |
| INDIA OPENS ITS PENSION SYSTEM TO GOLD AND SILVER ETF PURCHASES!! |
| India's pension regulator, PFRDA, recently opened up pension funds (NPS, APY, UPS) to invest in gold and silver ETFs, allowing up to 1% for government and 5% for private subscribers, significantly boosting diversification for millions and creating long-term capital flows into precious metals, a move welcomed by experts as a major step in modernizing retirement planning
. This broadens access beyond just equities and bonds, allowing pension funds to hedge inflation and optimize returns with commodities for the first time. Key Details of the Regulatory Change: Who: Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA). What: Approved gold and silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) as eligible investments. For Whom: Subscribers of the National Pension System (NPS), Unified Pension Scheme (UPS), and Atal Pension Yojana (APY). Investment Limits: Up to 1% of Assets Under Management (AUM) for government schemes and up to 5% for private sector schemes. When: Effective immediately following a master circular on December 10, 2025. Why It Matters (Impact): Diversification: Adds precious metals as a hedge against inflation and market volatility, balancing traditional equity/debt portfolios. Modernization: A big shift towards broader, more sophisticated asset allocation for Indian retirement savings. Liquidity & Capital: Expected to bring stable, long-term capital into gold and silver markets. K 12/16/2025 |
| THE U.S. ONLY PRODUCES 30% OF THE SILVER IT NEEDS FOR INDUSTRY!! |
| The U.S. relies heavily on silver imports, with estimates suggesting around
70% comes from abroad, primarily Canada and Mexico. Leading to concerns about supply chain security, especially as demand from green tech (solar, EVs) and electronics surges, creating market tightness and making silver a critical mineral focus for the U.S. Key Points on U.S. Silver Imports: High Import Dependence: The U.S. imports a significant portion of its silver needs, often cited as around 70%. Major Suppliers: Canada and Mexico are key sources for these imported supplies. Supply Deficit: Global demand for silver, driven by clean energy (solar panels, EVs) and technology, consistently outpaces supply, leading to chronic shortages. Critical Mineral Status: The U.S. government's decision to add silver to the critical minerals list highlights concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities and reliance on foreign sources, notes the U.S. Geological Survey. Market Impact: This tight supply, coupled with trade policy uncertainty (like potential tariffs), has created price volatility and led to stockpiling, affecting global supply dynamics, says BBC News and CryptoRank. 12/15/25 |
| THE FED BEGINS 40 BILLION PER MONTH IN TREASURY PURCHASES ( MONEY PRINTING )!! |
| The Federal Reserve announced it will start buying about $40 billion in short-term US Treasury bills monthly, beginning December 12, 2025, to add reserves back into the banking system and ensure ample liquidity, stemming from strains in money markets after ending its balance sheet reduction (Quantitative Tightening) earlier this month. Why the Fed is Doing This: Manage Liquidity: Quantitative Easing (QE) ended, and increasing Treasury supply drained cash from money markets, causing stress. Support Policy Rate: More reserves help the Fed maintain control over its key interest rate (Federal Funds Rate). The real reason is because other countries that traditionally buy our treasuries are no longer buying them. The federal reserve is still sitting on about 6 TRILLION of former money printing programs from the past! We were told they would run it off their balance sheet more than a decade ago! Get ready for much more money printing to come. Key Details: Amount: Approximately $40 billion per month! Start Date: December 12, 2025. Instruments: Treasury bills (short-term). Future Pace: The purchases are expected to remain elevated for a few months (possibly higher due to tax deadlines). Impact: The Fed's balance sheet will start expanding again after shrinking since 2022. The definition of a PONZI SCHEME is it has to grow bigger or it implodes!! 12/11/2025 |
| SILVER BREAKS 61 DOLLARS PER OUNCE IN OVERNIGHT TRADING!! |
| Silver has hit a fresh
record high above $61 per troy ounce in overnight and early trading on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. This surge follows its initial break above the $60 mark for the first time in history on Tuesday. Key Drivers of the Price Rally: Supply Shortage: Persistent physical supply tightness and declining inventories in vaults are major factors. Soaring Industrial Demand: The metal is increasingly vital for industrial applications, particularly in solar panels, electric vehicles, and the expanding infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers, leading to high, inelastic demand. Federal Reserve Expectations: Traders are betting the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its Dec 9-10 meeting. Lower borrowing costs typically boost non-yielding precious metals like silver. Speculative Momentum: The rapid advance has drawn significant speculative money and "fear of missing out" (FOMO) from investors, driving further momentum. Spot silver reached an all-time high of approximately $61.61 per ounce during the session. 12/10/2025 |
| GOLD IS UP OVER 60% AND SILVER IS UP OVER 100% IN 2025!! |
| Reports from late 2025 confirm gold surged over 60% and silver over 100%, reaching record highs due to economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and industrial demand. Silver significantly outperforming due to supply constraints and its perceived cheapness relative to gold, driving massive investor inflows and a historic bull market for both metals. Key Factors Driving the Rally (2025): Economic Uncertainty: High debt levels in major economies, potential recessions, and market volatility pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing global conflicts and trade uncertainties amplified the demand for gold as a hedge, notes Nasdaq. Central Bank & ETF Demand: Central banks increased gold purchases, and gold ETFs saw significant inflows, particularly from Western investors. Silver's Unique Drivers: Silver benefited from its "cheapness" relative to gold (high gold-to-silver ratio) and tight supply due to constrained mine output, reports Bloomberg.com and Longbridge. Interest Rates: Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts made non-yielding assets like precious metals more attractive, according to Investopedia. Market Performance: Gold: Climbed significantly, breaking records, with some reports placing it near $4,200+ by early December 2025. Silver: Saw even more dramatic gains, nearly doubling (up over 100%), reaching new all-time highs (e.g., near $56-$60/ounce). Outlook (Late 2025/Early 2026): Analysts expected these trends to continue, with forecasts suggesting gold could approach $4,500-$5,000+ in 2026, driven by structural demand and continued economic uncertainty. 12/8/2025 |
| THE 30 YEAR TREASURY NEARING ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008 IN THE FACE OF RATE CUTS!! |
| The statement is accurate, as the 30-year Treasury yield has recently been at levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. This rise is driven by market concerns over inflation, high government deficits, and increased Treasury bond issuance, which makes long-term government debt less attractive and forces yields to rise to compensate investors. Reasons for the rising yield: Inflation concerns: The bond market anticipates continued inflation, which can erode the value of future bond payments, pushing investors to demand higher yields. Increased bond supply: The U.S. government is issuing more long-term bonds to finance its growing deficits, and a larger supply of bonds can lower prices and raise yields. Market expectations: The market is wary of the U.S. fiscal situation being unsustainable, and the Federal Reserve cutting short-term rates while inflation is accelerating could be perceived as a sign of being "lackadaisical" about inflation, which also pushes yields higher, say Wolf Street. What this means for you: Higher borrowing costs: Higher Treasury yields can lead to higher borrowing costs for consumers, such as on mortgages, as these rates are often benchmarked against Treasuries. Expect "MONEY PRINTING" any day now. 12/4/2025 |
| INDIA IMPORTS ANOTHER 51 MILLION OUNCES OF SILVER IN OCTOBER!! |
| Reports indicate that India imported approximately
51 million ounces of silver (around 1,600 metric tons) in October 2025. This massive surge, which contributed to a sixfold increase in silver imports compared to the previous year in value terms, was primarily driven by strong festive and wedding season demand, as well as industrial needs. Key Details of the Silver Import Surge: Volume: The total import volume was roughly 51 million ounces (Moz), or 1,600 metric tons. Value: In value terms, silver imports reached $2.72 billion in October 2025, a significant jump of over 530% from $0.43 billion in October 2024. Source: The majority of the silver came from the U.K. Driving Factors: Strong demand during the festive season, including Diwali, when buying precious metals is considered auspicious. Pent-up demand following a period of subdued imports in previous months. Robust industrial demand for applications in solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles (EVs). Significant investment demand, leading to record inflows into silver ETFs. Economic Impact: This surge in silver imports, along with record gold imports, caused India's trade deficit to widen to an all-time high of $41.68 billion in October 2025. Market Conditions: The high demand created a shortage in the local market, forcing ETFs and bullion dealers to pay hefty premiums. 12/2/2025 |
| THE LBMA IS STILL RUNNING SILVER SHORTAGES!! |
| Reports from late 2025 indicate the
LBMA market is still experiencing significant tightness and a potential physical silver shortage, driven by years of global demand outstripping supply and dwindling accessible inventories. Key Details of the LBMA Silver Situation: Persistent Deficit: The global silver market has faced a physical supply deficit since 2020, with 2025 marking the fifth consecutive year where demand (industrial, investment, etc.) has exceeded mine supply. The 2025 shortfall is projected to be one of the largest in recent decades. Dwindling Inventories: LBMA vault inventories have fallen around 30% since their peak in June 2021. The amount of "free float" silver (metal not already earmarked for ETFs or other allocated holdings) in London dropped to a critically low level of less than 155 million ounces in October 2025, enough to cover only about six weeks of global demand. Market Stress Indicators: The supply shortage has led to extreme market conditions, including: Backwardation: A market condition where the spot price is higher than future prices, signaling immediate demand for physical metal. High Lease Rates: The cost to borrow silver has surged to as high as 30% in some cases, and even over 100% per annum at one point, as traders short the metal struggle to find physical inventory to deliver. Spot vs. Futures Premium: The spot price in London briefly moved to a 5% premium over the COMEX futures price, an unprecedented event that highlights the physical market stress. Emergency Measures: The market turmoil in October 2025 saw emergency injections of metal (reports mention a 50 million ounce injection) and a rush to ship silver bars to London to cover short positions. Some sources suggest these measures only delayed a potential crisis. Structural Issues: Most market experts agree that a lack of investment in new silver mines over the last decade and the fact that most silver is a byproduct of other metal mining operations makes it difficult to quickly increase supply. In short, the LBMA is navigating a system under significant stress, with low physical inventories and high demand. You can monitor current LBMA data on the official LBMA website. 11/25/2025 |
| SILVER DEFICIT WHEN COUNTING ETF HOLDINGS WILL BE 300 MILLION OZ FOR 2025!! |
| Sources have suggested a potential silver deficit of up to 300 million ounces when accounting for high ETF inflows, the widely cited forecast from the
Silver Institute's April 2025 World Silver Survey projects a lower, though still significant, deficit of approximately 95 to 118 million ounces for 2025. The silver market is experiencing its fifth consecutive year of a structural supply deficit, where overall demand outstrips new supply. Official Forecasts: Projections from the Silver Institute and its research consultancy Metals Focus estimate the 2025 market deficit between 95 million and 118 million ounces. Market Tensions: This strong investment demand, coupled with constrained mine supply and high industrial use (especially in solar panels and electronics), has led to market tightness, record-high lease rates, and some analysts pointing to the potential for the deficit to reach or exceed 300 million ounces under certain conditions. 11/24/2025 |
| CHINA BUYS GOLD FOR 12TH STRAIGHT MONTH MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. DOLLAR!! |
| Data from the People's Bank of China (PBoC) shows the central bank
purchased gold for a 12th consecutive month in October 2025. This sustained purchasing spree is part of a broader strategy to diversify its foreign exchange reserves, reduce reliance on the US dollar, and build financial security. Details of the Gold Purchases: Duration: The PBoC has reported additions to its gold reserves for twelve straight months, starting in November 2024 and continuing through October 2025. This follows an earlier 18-month buying streak that had paused in May 2024. Share of Reserves: Gold's share of China's total foreign exchange reserves has increased to 8% from 5.5% at the start of the current buying period. This is a record high for China. Impact on Price: This consistent demand from China and other global central banks has been a key factor in supporting record gold prices, with gold spot prices reaching a record of $4,381 per ounce in October 2025. Reasons for the Purchases: Diversification: To de-risk its portfolio by diversifying away from the US dollar and US Treasuries amid geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about government debt and the stability of fiat currencies. Economic Security: The buying is viewed as an effort to guard the Chinese economy against potential Western sanctions. Strategic Asset: Gold is considered a key strategic asset by central banks looking to preserve value and navigate a fragmented and uncertain global economic landscape. 11/20/2025 |
| INDONESIA PUTS TARIFFS ON GOLD TO PREVENT IT FROM LEAVING THE COUNTRY!! |
| Indonesia is planning to impose export taxes of up to 15% on gold, which is expected to take effect in early 2026, to encourage domestic processing and build a local bullion banking system. Details of the Policy: Implementation Date: The new export duties are expected to be implemented sometime in early 2026, as the legal documents are currently being finalized. Tax Structure: The tariffs, ranging from 7.5% to 15%, will be progressive and based on two main factors. Value-Added Processing: Higher rates will be applied to raw or less processed forms of gold (like gold dore or granules), while lower rates will apply to more refined products (like minted bars) to incentivize domestic refining. Global Prices: The duties will be adjusted according to global gold prices. Higher rates (up to 15%) are likely to be applied when the price of gold exceeds a certain threshold (e.g., $3,200 per troy ounce), to capture windfall profits for the state. Objectives: The primary goals are to boost state revenue, encourage the creation of more value-added products from domestic resources, and ensure a sufficient supply of gold within the country for a developing bullion banking ecosystem. This is part of Indonesia's broader strategy of resource nationalism, which has seen similar export bans on raw minerals like nickel and bauxite in recent years. This measure is a significant policy shift aimed at capturing more value from its natural resources domestically. 11/19/2025 |
| FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS NOW RECOMMENDING A 20 PERCENT ALLOCATION TO GOLD!! |
| A 60% equities, 20% bonds, 20% gold (60/20/20) asset allocation strategy has been recently proposed by some major financial institutions, notably the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Morgan Stanley, as a potential successor to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. This recommendation is driven by current macroeconomic concerns, particularly persistent inflation and the belief that bonds have lost their effectiveness as a reliable hedge against market downturns and inflation. Rationale for the 60/20/20 Model: Ineffectiveness of Bonds: In an environment of high government debt and inflation, the traditional inverse correlation between stocks and bonds has broken down, diminishing bonds' ability to provide balance during equity market stress. Gold as an "Anti-Fragile" Asset: Gold is seen as an "anti-fragile" asset that can perform well during volatile conditions and act as a superior inflation hedge compared to U.S. Treasuries. Diversification: The allocation of a substantial portion (20%) to a non-correlated, hard asset like gold is intended to enhance portfolio resilience and risk-adjusted returns. Addressing Current Economic Landscape: This model is presented as a response to an evolving global economic landscape characterized by geopolitical instability and doubts about the long-term stability of fiat currencies. 11/17/2025 |
| GLOBAL SILVER PANEL PRODUCTION COULD TAKE 1/5 ANNUAL SILVER PRODUCTION BY 2030!! |
| Global solar panel production could significantly increase silver demand by 2030, with forecasts suggesting it could consume up to 20% of the world's total silver supply. This surge is driven by the rapid growth of the solar industry, with some projections showing an almost 170% increase in demand for silver by 2030, or approximately 273 million ounces. The growing demand is putting pressure on silver supply, especially since the trend of reducing the amount of silver per panel has plateaued, and new technologies can even require more silver. Impact on silver demand: Projected increase: By 2030, the solar industry may use up to one-fifth of the total global silver demand, a significant jump from previous years. Current consumption: In 2023, photovoltaics (PV) already consumed about 142 million ounces of silver, or 13.8% of total usage. Technological shifts: While there have been efforts to reduce silver use, new technologies like TOPCon and SHJ cells require more silver than older PERC cells, potentially driving demand up even further, according to ScienceDirect.com. Implications for silver supply: Supply-demand gap: This projected demand growth comes at a time when silver supply, much of which comes as a byproduct from other mines, has not kept pace, according to the Payne Institute. Risk of shortages: The combination of high demand growth and limited supply could lead to price increases and potential shortages. Recycling impact: While recycling will be crucial for long-term sustainability, it will not be able to meet the short-term demand increase, as most panels have a long lifespan, notes Wiley Online Library. 11/11/2025 |
| OCTOBER JOB CUTS MOST SINCE 2003!! |
| The October 2025 job numbers were the worst for the month since 2003, with
over 153,000 job cuts announced by U.S. employers, according to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This represents the highest level of layoffs for October in 22 years and is attributed to cost-cutting measures and the adoption of AI. Total job cuts: Over 153,000 job cuts were announced in October 2025. Key Details from Private Reports: Job Cuts Announced: U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October 2025, a 175% increase from October 2024. Comparison to 2003: This figure represents the highest number of job cuts announced for the month of October since 2003, when 171,874 cuts were recorded. Year-to-Date Totals: The total number of job cuts announced in the first ten months of 2025 surpassed one million, a 65% increase from the same period in 2024. This is the worst year for total job cuts since the 2009 recession. Industry Impact: Warehousing and technology sectors were among the most affected, with artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and cost-cutting cited as primary reasons. Hiring Data: Other private data, such as from ADP, presented a mixed picture, showing a modest gain in jobs added, though overall indicators suggest a general cooling of the labor market. 11/10/2025 |
| CHINA SEEKING COUNTRIES TO STORE THEIR GOLD WITHIN CHINA!! |
| China is actively seeking to act as a
custodian for foreign nations' gold reserves, and reports indicate that Cambodia is the first country to take up this offer. Key Details: Goal: China's primary objective is to build a global financial system less dependent on the U.S. dollar and traditional Western financial centers like London and New York. By becoming a major global bullion hub, it aims to increase the international role and influence of its own currency, the yuan. Mechanism: The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the nation's central bank, is using the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) to court central banks from "friendly" or non-aligned countries. The SGE has opened its first offshore vault in Hong Kong to facilitate this initiative. Targeted Assets: The initiative primarily focuses on encouraging new gold purchases by other central banks to be stored within China's borders, rather than convincing them to relocate their existing stockpiles from current locations. Motivation for Other Countries: Nations are increasingly diversifying their reserves away from the U.S. dollar and seeking alternative storage solutions due to rising geopolitical tensions and fears of potential sanctions or asset seizures, making China's offer a viable option for some. Cambodia's Role: Cambodia plans to store some of its gold reserves in a vault registered with the SGE in Shenzhen's bonded zone. Other countries have reportedly expressed interest as they weigh the benefits of diversification. 11/6/25 |
| CHINA ADDS SILVER TO ITS CONTROLLED EXPORTS LIST!! |
| China has added silver to its list of controlled exports, a move that places it alongside other strategic resources like rare earth minerals. This action is part of broader policy changes that also include the removal of a VAT exemption for certain platinum transactions, and it indicates a more rigorous government strategy for managing outbound trade of key resources. While the initial market reaction was one of apprehension leading to price drops for gold and silver, the markets later showed resilience and a robust rebound. Export controls: By adding silver to its list of controlled exports, China is implementing more stringent management over its outbound trade of the metal. Impact on markets: The policy changes, effective in early November 2025, initially caused prices for gold and silver to fall sharply, with significant drops in Asian trading. Market rebound: Despite the initial decline, both gold and silver prices rebounded later the same day. Broader policy context: The silver inclusion is part of a larger, systematic recalibration of China's precious metals sector that also includes tax reforms, such as ending a VAT exemption for platinum transactions. Significance: These changes signal a more stringent approach from Beijing toward its precious metals trade and could have long-term effects on supply chains, pricing, and the strategic positioning of these metals within China's economy. 11/4/2025 |
| MARKETWATCH AND LARGE BANKS CALLING FOR $60-$65 SILVER AND $5000 GOLD!! |
| Several analysts and institutions have indeed made predictions for
$5,000 gold and $60 (or more) silver, with these forecasts being reported by MarketWatch and other financial news outlets. These targets are generally set for the 2026 timeframe and are driven by ongoing economic uncertainty, central bank demand, and industrial use (for silver). Key points regarding these predictions: Bank of America (BofA): Analysts, as reported by MarketWatch, have raised their price targets to $5,000 for gold and $65 for silver by 2026. Analysts at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) annual conference and the British research firm Metals Focus also expect gold to reach $5,000 an ounce and silver to hit $60 next year. Institutional Sentiment: Generally points towards the $5,000 mark by 2026 The predictions are based on factors including persistent inflation, geopolitical instability, expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and strong industrial demand for silver (especially in green energy and technology). 11/3/2025 |
| INDIA HAS IMPORTED OVER 15,000 TONNES OF SILVER IN LAST 3 YEARS!! |
| Based on reporting for the period from 2022 to 2024, India has imported over 15,000 tonnes of silver
. While imports fluctuate, the cumulative tonnage for the last three years easily surpasses 15,000 tonnes, primarily driven by industrial and investment demand. Year-by-year silver import data: 2022: India's silver imports hit a record high of 9,450 tonnes for the calendar year. This surge was attributed to pent-up demand after pandemic lockdowns and restocking by manufacturers and retailers. 2023: After the previous year's record imports, volumes dropped sharply to 3,625 tonnes. This reflects the Indian silver market's tendency to have a high volume year followed by a low one. 2024: Imports saw a significant rebound, with 4,554 tonnes imported in just the first half of the year. Analysts projected total imports for 2024 could exceed 7,000 tonnes. Factors driving high silver imports: Record-high 2022 imports: Demand was high across all segments, including jewelry, silverware, and industrial applications. Rising industrial demand: Growing industries, particularly solar panel manufacturing and electronics, require large quantities of silver. Shifting trade routes: The India and UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) went into effect in 2022, offering lower import tariffs. This caused a paradigm shift in the supply chain, with imports from the UAE increasing dramatically. Investment appetite: Investment in silver increased as it gained favor with both rural and urban investors as a store of value. The introduction of Silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in India also attracted new investment. India is expected to import another 5,500 to 6,000 tonnes in 2025! 10/30/2025 |
| INFLATION CONTINUES TO RISE AS FED RESUMES RATE CUTS!! |
| According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation rate increased to 3.0% in September 2025, up from 2.9% in August
. Though this annual rate has been fluctuating, it is higher than the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. Key inflation details: September CPI data: In September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the cost of a basket of consumer goods and services, rose 0.3% over the month. On an annual basis, the 12-month increase stood at 3.0%. Core vs. headline inflation: The Bureau of Labor Statistics also measures "core inflation," which excludes volatile food and energy prices. In September, the annual rate for core inflation was 3.0%, down slightly from August. Contributing factors: Several categories experienced price increases in September. The cost of gasoline and energy rose, as did shelter, airline fares, recreation, and household furnishings. Impact of tariffs: Economists note that recently imposed tariffs by the U.S. government on goods from certain countries are contributing to the upward pressure on prices. Consumer sentiment: Surveys conducted in October 2025 indicate high levels of consumer concern over inflation. Many Americans feel that economic conditions are poor and that their wages are not keeping up with rising prices. Context for the Federal Reserve: The uptick in inflation creates a complex challenge for the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate to keep both inflation and unemployment low. The annual inflation rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, but the monthly increase was lower than some economists expected. With the job market also showing signs of cooling, the Fed must consider both inflation and employment data when deciding on future monetary policy. Expect the fed to do what they always do PRINT MONEY, and DEVALUE THE CURRENCY! 10/29/2025 |
| INDIA MAKES SILVER 10 TO 1 WITH GOLD FOR COLLATERAL LOANS!! |
| India's Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has established a 10:1 silver-to-gold ratio for collateral, allowing banks to accept silver as security for loans, effective April 1, 2026. This move allows individuals and businesses to use silver as collateral for loans, a historic step for the financial inclusion of silver in India. This is a significant change as silver is not currently used as collateral. Key details of the new guidelines: Silver as collateral: Banks and non-banking financial companies can now accept silver as collateral for loans, much like gold. Silver-to-gold collateral ratio: The RBI has set a reference ratio of 10 kilograms of silver to 1 kilogram of gold for collateral purposes. Loan-to-value (LTV) ratios: The LTV for silver-backed loans will vary based on the loan amount, similar to existing gold loan guidelines: 85% for loans up to ₹2.5 lakh- 80% for loans between ₹2.5 lakh and ₹5 lakh- 75% for loans above ₹5 lakh. Loan limits: The total weight of silver ornaments pledged per borrower cannot exceed 10 kg. Effective date: These new regulations are set to be implemented from April 1, 2026. This new policy is seen as a move to increase credit access for farmers, MSMEs, and other individuals by expanding the collateral options available to them and further integrating silver into the formal financial system. Just as a reminder TEXAS along with several other states have passed laws making gold and silver money again! We can all see where this is heading! 10/27/25 K.
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| SILVER PRICE BASED ON PAPER CONTRACTS NOT PHYSICAL!! |
| Yes, the silver market is heavily influenced by highly leveraged paper contracts, which creates a complex pricing dynamic
. The silver spot price, which represents the real-time cost for immediate delivery, is primarily determined by trading on futures exchanges like the COMEX in New York, not by physical supply and demand. How paper contracts influence silver prices: Massive trading volume: The volume of silver traded through paper contracts—including futures, options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—far exceeds the amount of available physical silver. For instance, some estimates suggest the paper-to-physical silver ratio may be as high as 400-to-1. Amplified volatility and speculation: High leverage in the futures market allows traders to control vast amounts of silver with a small amount of capital. This can lead to sharp and rapid price fluctuations based on trader sentiment and speculation rather than physical market fundamentals. Price suppression allegations: Critics, including precious metals experts, argue that the sheer volume of paper contracts can create an illusion of abundant supply, potentially suppressing the price of silver below what would be dictated by physical market forces. This is a long-standing criticism of the market. Dominance of cash settlements: Only a very small percentage of futures contracts are settled by physical delivery. This ability to settle in cash mitigates the risk of failing to deliver physical metal, further separating the paper market price from the realities of physical supply and demand. The interplay of paper and physical markets: Physical shortages drive premiums: Strong physical demand, especially from industrial uses in sectors like electronics and solar panels, can lead to a divergence between paper and physical prices. During shortages, physical bullion and coin buyers may pay significant premiums above the spot price. A "structural problem": Some analysts note that the recent shipment of physical silver from the U.S. and China to London addressed a short-term issue but did not fix the long-term structural deficit of physical silver needed to back all the outstanding paper claims. 10/23/25 |
| RETAIL SILVER SHORTAGE HERE WITH NO END IN SIGHT!! |
| A retail silver bullion shortage is currently occurring due to several factors, including a persistent global demand exceeding supply and supply chain strains from industrial use, particularly in green energy. This has led to empty shelves at retailers, high premiums over spot prices, and logistical bottlenecks, as refineries are overwhelmed. The situation is compounded by increased investment demand for physical bullion, and a lack of available silver in the market. Causes of the shortage: Industrial demand: A significant driver is the increasing use of silver in industrial applications, especially for solar panels (photovoltaics) and electronics, which consumes a large and growing portion of the available supply. Persistent deficit: For five consecutive years, global demand for silver has outstripped the supply from mines and recycling. This ongoing structural deficit has depleted inventories. Supply chain constraints: Silver is often a by-product of mining other metals, meaning its supply cannot quickly increase in response to price changes. Refineries are currently overloaded, leading to delays in processing and minting new coins and bars. Investment and speculation: A recent surge in investment demand for physical silver, including purchases of ETFs and physical coins and bars, has further strained the physical market and exacerbated the shortage. Logistical issues: The flow of silver has been impacted by increased demand in various regions, with reports of empty shelves and delayed shipments from major mints in places like Australia, Canada, and the U.K. Effects of the shortage: High premiums: The price of physical silver is now trading at a significant premium over the paper spot price, as retailers and investors are willing to pay more to secure available metal. Empty shelves: Retailers, both in the U.S. and internationally, are experiencing stockouts and long backorders for silver bullion products.
Refineries are facing significant backlogs, with some reporting being booked months in advance, which slows down the production of new bullion. 10/20/25
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| INDIA HALTS INFLOWS INTO SILVER ETF'S DUE TO SHORTAGES!! |
| Following a severe physical silver shortage and soaring domestic prices, several Indian mutual fund houses have temporarily halted new investments in their silver Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) products
. The suspension, which began in mid-October 2025, is a protective measure for investors, as the price of ETFs was trading at a significant premium to its true value. Reasons for the shortage and suspension: Premium on domestic silver: Due to tight supply and high demand, the price of silver in India was trading at a premium of 5% to 12% over global benchmarks. This made it nearly impossible for fund houses to buy physical silver at fair market prices to create new ETF units. Surging investor demand: Indian investors have shown high interest in silver ETFs, especially in 2025, pushing inflows to record levels. The sharp increase in silver prices, combined with festive season demand, has put a further strain on available supply. Underlying supply constraints: Globally, silver has been in a structural deficit for several years, with demand outpacing production. About 70% of silver is a by-product of mining other metals, limiting the industry's ability to quickly increase output. Drop in imports: Despite India being the world's largest silver consumer, imports fell significantly during the first eight months of 2025. This, along with international supply issues like higher lease rates in London, has exacerbated the domestic shortage. 10/16/25 |
| SILVER LEASE RATES SURGE TO ALL TIME HIGHS!! |
| Silver lease rates have surged to over 35% on a one-month basis, a multi-year high driven by a tight physical supply and increased demand, particularly from short sellers. This spike indicates high borrowing costs for physical silver, reflecting market stress and scarcity. Surge in rates:
The cost to borrow silver, or its lease rate, has increased dramatically, reaching over 35% on a one-month annualized basis. Market tightness:
The elevated rates signal a scarcity of physical silver in the market. This is partly due to a rush to ship metal to markets like New York earlier in the year. Increased demand:
The surge is driven by both speculative demand from short sellers needing to borrow metal and potentially strong industrial demand, with holders reluctant to lend. Impact on prices:
High lease rates are a sign of market stress and have coincided with a rally in silver's spot price, which has reached record highs recently. 10/14/25
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| SILVER IN BACKWARDATION IN EUROPE AND OTHER GLOBAL MARKETS!! |
| Recent analysis confirms that the silver market in Europe, along with other major global exchanges, has been in backwardation, an unusual and significant market condition
. This indicates a shortage of physical silver for immediate delivery, as demonstrated by the spot price rising above the price of future delivery contracts. What backwardation means for silver: Backwardation is a clear signal of near-term physical scarcity and high immediate demand. This is the inverse of the usual market situation, called "contango," where the futures price is higher than the spot price to account for the costs of financing, storage, and insurance. Evidence of backwardation in the silver market includes: Intraday pricing: The spot price for silver has been observed trading above the front-month futures contract price during trading sessions. Wider EFP/cobasis spreads: The exchange-for-physical (EFP) and cash-and-carry (cobasis) spreads have widened, indicating that counterparties are paying a premium to convert futures exposure into physical metal. Vault withdrawals: Evidence of withdrawals from exchange and silver ETF vaults suggests a tightening of deliverable inventory. High dealer premiums: Premiums for physical silver products from dealers have increased significantly above the spot price, showing the shortage has reached both institutional and retail buyers. Rising lease rates: Silver lease rates have spiked, signaling significant borrowing pressure for physical silver. Factors driving the silver shortage in Europe: Several factors have contributed to the physical silver shortage and subsequent backwardation in the European market: Persistent supply deficits: Overall, global mine production of silver has lagged behind demand for several years. Analysts forecast a significant supply deficit for 2025, one of the largest on record. Growing industrial demand: Industrial applications, particularly the rapidly expanding electric vehicle (EV) and electronics sectors, are consuming an increasing amount of silver. Industrial demand is estimated to make up nearly 60% of silver usage in 2025. Inflation and instability: Increasing investment demand for physical silver as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty is adding pressure to the market. Both institutional and retail investors have been turning to silver-backed products and bullion. Supply chain disruptions: Ongoing supply chain challenges throughout 2025 have exacerbated the issue of physical scarcity by keeping near-term supply limited. Market implications: The backwardation in the silver market could lead to a significant price rally. Precedent for price spikes: Similar periods of backwardation in silver, such as in 2011, 2015, and 2020, were followed by substantial price increases within a matter of months. Potential for a run on physical silver: The structural supply deficits combined with a potential break of the $50 price point could trigger broader public interest. This, in turn, could lead to a significant run on physical silver, which would further accelerate price spikes. Coming to a country near you real soon! |
| CENTRAL BANKS TO BUY OVER 1,000 TONS OF GOLD IN 2025!! |
| Central banks are projected to buy over a thousand tons of gold in 2025, a level of demand that has exceeded 1,000 metric tons annually since 2022, driven by a global diversification away from the U.S. dollar and a response to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, according to reports by Reuters, Euronews.com, and other financial news outlets. Key Drivers for Continued Gold Purchases: Diversification away from the U.S. dollar: Many countries are reducing their reliance on the U.S. dollar due to concerns about its role as a global reserve currency, with gold offering a non-debt-based alternative, according to a report from www.americanstandardgold.com. Geopolitical uncertainty: Global conflicts and political instability have made fiat-based reserve assets riskier, leading central banks to favor gold as a safer and more reliable store of value, notes. Hedging against inflation: The period of high inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic and government money printing has reinforced the need for gold as a hedge against price increases and economic instability, according to a report from www.equiti.com. Impact of sanctions: The freezing of Russia's foreign currency reserves after the Ukraine invasion spurred other developing economies to diversify their holdings to avoid similar outcomes. Evidence of Demand: Sustained buying trend: Central bank net purchases have surpassed 1,000 tons for four consecutive years, with continued strong demand expected for 2025, according to Reuters. Survey data:
A 2025 World Gold Council survey found that 95% of central banks expected to increase their gold holdings in the coming year, with 75% anticipating a reduction in their dollar reserves, as detailed by Euronews.com. Significant players: The People's Bank of China, along with central banks in countries like Kazakhstan, India, and others in Asia and the Middle East, are leading this extended gold-buying spree, as noted by dV Investment and Euronews.com.
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| PHYSICAL SILVER BEGINNING TO RUN SHORTAGES!! |
| Recent analysis indicates that a global physical silver shortage is developing, driven by years of supply deficits and surging industrial demand. Indicators of a developing shortage: Persistent supply deficits:The global silver market has experienced supply deficits (demand exceeding supply) for the last several years. The deficit for 2025 is projected to be the fifth consecutive one, following a cumulative shortage of 678 million ounces between 2021 and 2024. Declining above-ground inventory: A report from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) noted that silver supplies held in their vaults dropped by 7.5% year-on-year by August 2025, reaching a multi-year low. Increased physical product premiums:Bullion dealers have reported elevated premiums on physical products, like coins and bars, signaling strong retail investor demand and tighter supply of available products. Decreased COMEX and LBMA inventories:Registered silver inventories on the COMEX futures exchange have fallen significantly in recent years. This means less physical silver is available for delivery to those holding futures contracts, a trend that can exacerbate supply concerns. Key factors driving the shortage: Surging industrial demand:Unlike gold, silver has a significant industrial component, which accounts for approximately 50–60% of total annual demand. Renewable energy:The booming solar energy sector is a major consumer of silver, which is used in photovoltaic (PV) cells due to its high electrical conductivity.Electronics and electric vehicles (EVs): Supply constraints:The ability of mining companies to increase output is facing multiple headwinds. Lack of primary silver mining:Around 70% of silver is produced as a byproduct of mining for other metals, such as copper, gold, and lead-zinc. This makes silver supply inelastic, as it does not respond directly to a rise in the silver price. Underinvestment:There has been chronic underinvestment in exploration and development of new silver mines over the past decade. Declining ore grades:At existing mines, the average grade of silver in the ore continues to decline, meaning more material must be processed to get the same amount of silver. Recycling limitations:While recycling provides a portion of the total supply, it is not expanding fast enough to close the deficit gap. Impact on the silver market:The cumulative effect of these factors creates the potential for a "silver squeeze," where a sudden spike in physical demand could overwhelm the limited supply of freely traded silver, leading to sharp price increases. Investor interest has also surged in 2025 due to global uncertainty, inflation, and a flight to safe-haven assets, further tightening the market for physical silver.
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| U.S. GOLD HOLDINGS TOP 1 TRILLION FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER!! |
| The U.S. government's gold holdings surpassed $1 trillion in market value for the first time in history on September 29, 2025, due to a record surge in gold prices that pushed the per-ounce value to over $3,825. Although the physical amount of gold remains constant, its market value has dramatically increased from its long-standing book value of $42.22 per ounce set in 1973. The U.S. Treasury has about 261.5 million ounces of gold, with much of it stored at Fort Knox. Key Details: Gold Holdings:The U.S. holds approximately 261.5 million ounces of gold, or 8,133 tons. Record Gold Price:Gold prices surged to over $3,825 per ounce on Monday, September 29, 2025, a 45% increase year-to-date, according to Angel One. Market Value vs. Book Value:The current market value of U.S. gold reserves is over $1 trillion, while the official, long-held book value is $42.22 per ounce, according to TipRanks. Physical Location:More than half of the gold is stored in Fort Knox, Kentucky, with the rest distributed across the West Point, Denver, and New York Fed vaults. Implications: Financial Impact:
A revaluation of the gold holdings to market prices could potentially "inject" nearly $990 billion into the U.S. Treasury's books. Policy Considerations:
While tempting, this revaluation is not currently being considered, as it could cause liquidity issues and contradict the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening efforts. Historical Precedent:
Other countries, such as Germany, Italy, and South Africa, have revalued their gold reserves in the past. This is if you believe the gold is even there!
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| CHINA ENCOURAGES NATIONS TO DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM THE U.S. DOLLAR!! |
| China is reportedly challenging the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for global gold custody by encouraging central banks in friendly nations to store bullion in China. This move is part of China's broader strategy to reduce the influence of the U.S. dollar and strengthen the yuan's role in the global financial system. China's gold strategy: Shanghai Gold Exchange:China is using its state-controlled Shanghai Gold Exchange to court central banks and offer gold custody services. Encouraging foreign reserves:The People's Bank of China is urging other countries, particularly those in Southeast Asia, to purchase gold and store it within China's borders. Easing import rules:In September 2025, China's central bank began streamlining gold import and export rules. The proposal makes multi-use permits for bullion more flexible and expands the ports that can clear it, making it easier for central banks to move gold in and out of the country. Establishing offshore vaults: In June 2025, China established its first offshore bullion vault in Hong Kong through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This allows for gold trading in yuan, further promoting the Chinese currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar. Increased gold holdings:China's central bank has been consistently buying gold for its own reserves, with continuous purchases reported since late 2022. This demonstrates confidence in the metal and supports China's de-dollarization strategy. Implications and context: Competition with the BIS:The BIS, based in Switzerland, serves as a gold custodian for many of the world's central banks. China's efforts pose a direct challenge to the BIS by offering an alternative storage location and trading hub. Diversification away from the dollar:This initiative is part of a wider trend of central banks diversifying their reserves away from the U.S. dollar, especially amid global economic uncertainty. By offering a yuan-based gold trading alternative, China provides another option for countries looking to reduce their reliance on the greenback. Increased global clout:If successful, this move would enhance Beijing's role in the global financial system and increase its influence over the international bullion market. |
| U.S. DOLLAR DOWN MOST SINCE 1973!! |
| The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies dropped about 11% in the first half of this year, the biggest decline in more than 50 years, ending a 15-year bull cycle. Morgan Stanley Research estimates the U.S. currency could lose another 10% by the end of 2026. Despite a recovery of 3.2% in July, the delayed impact of tariffs on growth and unemployment – besides policy uncertainties – are likely to keep negative pressure on the dollar. Foreign investors have been adding hedges to their exposure to U.S. assets, which will likely further weaken the dollar. The U.S. dollar ended the first half of 2025 with its biggest loss since 1973. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies of the U.S.’s major trading partners, fell about 11% from January through the end of June. That decline also marked the end of a structural bull cycle for the dollar, which started in 2010 and ended in 2024 with an accumulated gain of about 40%. Although the currency strengthened 3.2% in July, recovering some of this year’s depreciation, Morgan Stanley Research expects the decline to continue, possibly adding another 10% in losses by the end of next year. “We're likely at the intermission rather than the finale,”says David Adams, head of G10 FX Strategy at Morgan Stanley.
Although the currency strengthened 3.2% in July, recovering some of this year’s depreciation, Morgan Stanley Research expects the decline to continue, possibly adding another 10% in losses by the end of next year.
“The second act for the dollar’s weakening should come over the next 12 months, as U.S. interest rates and growth converge with those of the rest of the world.”
The U.S. currency depreciation could have significant impacts for consumers, businesses, investors and ultimately for the overall economy: It would be more expensive for Americans to travel abroad. U.S. assets could be less compelling for foreign investors. Import prices could rise, putting pressure on inflation. The prices of everything are about to rise as the government devalues the dollar. Your purchasing power are about to drop significantly prepare yourself!!
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| TARIFFS TO CAUSE HIGHER PRICE INFLATION AS COUNTRIES RETALIATE!! |
| When countries impose tariffs on each other, triggering a "trade war," it typically leads to higher prices for consumers
. While the tariffs are directly paid by importing businesses, companies frequently pass these extra costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Recent examples of this economic dynamic include the tariff escalations that have occurred between the U.S. and major trading partners in 2025. The ripple effect of tariffs: The imposition of tariffs creates a cascading effect that raises costs throughout the supply chain and for consumers: Importers bear the initial cost:A tariff is a tax on imports that is paid to the government by the domestic company that imports the good. To cover this additional cost, the importing company often raises its prices. Higher prices for consumers:Research confirms that these higher costs are often passed on to the public. For example, a 2019 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that U.S. tariffs on imported washing machines led to a significant price increase for consumers, including on domestically produced alternatives. A 2025 estimate from Yale's Budget Lab projected that recent tariffs could result in over $3,800 in additional costs per year for the average U.S. household. Price increases on domestic goods:Tariffs can also drive up the prices of domestically produced goods. This can occur when domestic companies raise prices because of reduced foreign competition or when they use imported parts or raw materials that have been hit with tariffs. Foreign retaliation:When a country imposes tariffs, its trading partners often retaliate with tariffs of their own on the country's exports. This can hurt a country's exporters and make its products more expensive for foreign consumers. During the trade escalations of 2025, for instance, China, Canada, and the European Union all imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. Disrupted supply chains:Tariffs can disrupt global supply chains, pushing companies to find new suppliers or change their manufacturing processes, which can increase costs and cause delays. |
| SILVER IN THE SHADOW OF BREAKING ITS ALL TIME HIGH!! |
| Silver's historical all-time high: Silver's all-time high is approximately $50 per ounce, reached in 1980 and again in 2011. Some analysts note that if the 1980 price is adjusted for inflation, it would be much higher today, putting the $50 level in perspective. Recent market performance (2025): Significant rally:In 2025, silver has shown extraordinary strength. By September, its price had climbed over 40% year-to-date, reaching its highest level in nearly 14 years and breaking past $41 per ounce. Analysts surpass targets:By late 2025, silver's rally had already exceeded the price targets of several major banks, including Citi, J.P. Morgan, and Saxo Bank, who had previously issued bullish outlooks. Expert bullishness:Some analysts are predicting silver will not only revisit but break its previous all-time high in the near future. One expert suggested it could "recast" the $50 high within one month and break through to new highs in the following year. Key drivers for a potential new high: Surging industrial demand:Over half of the annual silver demand comes from industrial uses, particularly in electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles. Growing momentum behind "green energy" has significantly increased demand for silver in solar photovoltaics. Supply deficits:The silver market is currently experiencing significant supply shortfalls, which could be the sixth consecutive year of deficit in 2025. This imbalance provides solid support for higher prices. Inflation hedging and geopolitical risk:Silver is viewed as a safe-haven asset, similar to gold. In times of economic uncertainty, investors often move into precious metals to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, pushing prices higher. The gold-to-silver ratio:Silver often lags behind gold during a bull market but can catch up with larger percentage gains. A historically high gold-to-silver ratio (meaning silver is cheap relative to gold) suggests silver has significant room to run as the ratio normalizes. |
| LARGEST DOWNWARD JOBS REVISION SINCE THE 2009 FINANCIAL CRISIS - 911,000!! |
| The largest jobs revision since the 2009 financial crisis occurred in September 2025 when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down job growth for the year ending March 2025 by 911,000 jobs. This preliminary benchmark revision was the largest in percentage terms since 2009, reflecting large shifts in the economy. The revision pointed to a weaker labor market than previously estimated, particularly due to the pandemic and subsequent shifts in the economy. Details of the Revision: Magnitude:The 2025 revision lowered the estimated number of jobs added in the year through March 2025 by 911,000. Comparison:This was the largest downward revision in percentage terms since the Great Recession in 2009. Context:The revision followed concerns about the labor market and is likely to reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Reasons for the Revision: Government Models:. The revision highlights issues with the BLS's models, especially concerning the "birth-death of businesses" component, which became less accurate in the pandemic's wake. Implications: Weaker Job Market:The revision indicates that the job market was weaker than initially thought, with job creation slowing significantly. Interest Rate Cuts:The weaker job market data provides a stronger case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Sectoral Impact:While widespread, the revision was particularly notable in the services sector, including leisure and hospitality, retail, and the information sector.
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| GOLD AND SILVER UP 40 PERCENT IN 2025!! |
| Reports from August and September 2025 indicate that gold and silver prices have indeed surged by approximately 40% year-over-year, with some sources even noting a more specific figure of around 40-44%. This rise is attributed to increased investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising inflation, geopolitical instability, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and economic leadership. Key Drivers for the Silver Rally: Industrial Demand:The rapid expansion of the solar industry and the continued electrification of vehicles are significant drivers of silver demand. Supply Deficit:The silver market has been in a consistent deficit since 2021, with demand outpacing supply, creating a tight market. Institutional Interest:Large funds and investors are increasingly seeking exposure to the silver market, which has a relatively small size, meaning even small allocations can significantly impact prices. Geopolitical Factors: Geopolitical tensions and the potential for global economic uncertainty can also make silver an attractive safe-haven asset. Key Details about Gold's 2025 Performance: Inflationary Concerns and Rate Cuts:Widespread expectations of central bank interest rate cuts have fueled gold's performance. Geopolitical Uncertainty:Unpredictable geopolitical events and trade policy changes have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Investor Interest:Investors are increasingly viewing gold as a stable financial asset for protecting wealth during economic turbulence and inflationary periods. Record Highs:The price of gold closed at an all-time high in early September 2025, demonstrating its strong upward momentum.
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| PRODUCER PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE, INCREASES WILL BE PASSED DOWN TO THE CONSUMER!! |
| US producer prices, as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), continued to rise in the latest reporting period (July 2025), with the final demand index up 3.3% for the year, the largest 12-month increase in months. This acceleration was driven by significant price increases for both goods and services, with wholesale services prices rising by the most in three years, and economists suggesting it indicates businesses are increasingly passing on costs related to tariffs and other factors to consumers. Final Demand PPI:Increased 3.3% for the 12 months ending July 2025, the largest annual increase since February 2025. Monthly Increase:Producer prices rose 0.9% in July, the biggest monthly jump since June 2022. Services Surge:Prices for final demand services increased 4.0% year-over-year, and wholesale services costs rose 1.1% for the month. Goods Performance:Prices for final demand goods rose 1.9% year-over-year. What This Means:Increased Business Costs:The PPI measures prices from the producer's perspective, so rising prices indicate higher costs for businesses. Potential Consumer Impact:Businesses may pass these increased costs, including those from tariffs, onto consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services. Economic Implications:The rise in producer prices, particularly for services, is a sign that inflation may still pose a threat to the economy and could influence future interest rate decisions.
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| SILVER GOES OVER 40$ AN OZ FOR FIRST TIME SINCE SEPTEMBER 2011!! |
| The last time silver was over $40 per ounce was in September 2011, with a brief surge above $40 in September 2025 reaching prices like $40.72/oz, its highest point since 2011. Key Dates & Prices: April 2011: Silver hit its all-time high at nearly $49.51 per ounce. Factors Influencing Silver's Price: Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts can boost silver prices. Weakening Dollar: A weaker U.S. dollar also provides momentum for precious metals like silver. 1980: Silver reached a historic all-time high of nearly $50 per ounce in January of 1980.
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| U.S. ADDS SILVER TO CRITICAL RESERVES LIST!! |
| The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Department of the Interior added silver to a draft list of critical minerals on August 26, 2025, to support clean energy and national security goals by securing supply chains and boosting domestic production. Silver's inclusion recognizes its vital role in technologies like solar panels and electronics, where demand is high and U.S. import dependence is significant. The draft list, which also added copper, potash, rehnium, silicon, and lead, is open for public comment before a final version is published in about a month.Why Silver Was Added
Clean Energy:Silver is crucial for manufacturing photovoltaic cells for solar panels, a key part of the U.S.'s clean energy transition. Technology:It is also used in electronics, electrical contacts, and advanced technologies, increasing its industrial demand. Supply Chain Vulnerability:The U.S. imports most of its silver, with domestic production meeting only about 30% of its demand, creating a potential vulnerability that the critical mineral designation aims to address. Implications of Critical StatusInclusion on the list can stimulate domestic production and encourage stockpiling from both governments and investors. Geopolitical Importance: It signals a strategic effort to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and strengthen domestic capabilities, which could have geopolitical implications as other nations respond. K.K.
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| GLOBAL DEBT BREAKS 100 TRILLION BREAKING ALL TIME RECORD AND IS SET TO SOAR!! |
| Global debt, both public and private, is soaring due to increased government spending during the pandemic and ongoing economic pressures, with global public debt projected to reach nearly 100% of global GDP by 2030. This rising debt is creating significant fiscal challenges and burdens for many countries, particularly developing nations, where interest payments are now exceeding spending on essential services like health and education. Factors contributing to this trend include high defense spending, social support demands, tight financial conditions, and geopolitical tensions, making future stability a major concern, according to the IMF and UNCTAD. Key Figures & Projections:Global Public Debt:Reached a record $102 trillion in 2024. Global Public Debt to GDP:Could hit 99.6% of global GDP by 2030. Impact on Developing Countries:In 2024, 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on debt interest than on health or education. Causes of Soaring Debt:Pandemic-Related Spending:Governments borrowed heavily to provide fiscal support during the COVID-19 crisis. Economic Pressures:Ongoing economic challenges are contributing to increased national debt. Rising Defense Spending:Many countries face increasing needs for defense expenditures. Tightening Financial Conditions:High interest rates and other financial pressures increase the cost of servicing debt. Geopolitical Tensions:Trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts contribute to worsening economic prospects. Consequences of High Debt:Reduced Fiscal Space:Debt constrains a government's ability to invest in essential services and economic development.Increased Vulnerability:Countries with high debt are more exposed to economic shocks and financial instability. Austerity Measures:To manage debt, some governments may resort to budget cuts or tax increases, which can have negative social and economic impacts. Outlook:The upward trend in global public debt is expected to continue through 2030.
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| GOLD IS UP 4778% SINCE LEAVING THE GOLD STANDARD IN 1971!! |
| President Richard Nixon's actions in 1971 to end dollar convertibility to gold and implement wage/price controls were intended to address the international dilemma of a looming gold run and the domestic problem of inflation. The new economic policy marked the beginning of the end of the Bretton Woods international monetary system. Long-Term Trend:Gold has shown a strong long-term upward trend since the end of the Gold Standard. For example, one analysis found that gold's annualized return from 1971 to 2023 was approximately 7.9%. Another reported average annual returns of 8.4% since 1971. "Nixon Shock" and Initial Surge:The "Nixon Shock" of August 1971, which ended the convertibility of the dollar to gold, triggered a significant increase in gold prices during the 1970s. Gold's value was around $42.22 per ounce in 1971 and reached highs of $850 in 1980. More Recent Performance:In more recent years, gold has continued to demonstrate strong performance, with average annual returns of 13.8% in 2023 and over 28% in 2024. In fact, gold reached new all-time highs several times in 2024 and 2025. Monetizing $5.2 trillion in COVID relief increases our money supply by 27% and comes on top of $4.5 trillion in QE (Quantitative Easing). Add another $2 trillion in planned infrastructure spending and we have $13 trillion in new money, which is a 35% increase in paper money in circulation and 60% of GDP. It's a lot of paper. |
| U.S. HOUSEHOLD DEBT HITS ALL TIME HIGH!! |
| United States household debt reached a new high of $18.39 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. This represents a $185 billion increase from the previous quarter and a $4.24 trillion increase since the end of 2019. Mortgages: $12.94 trillion Auto loans: $1.66 trillion Student loan balances: $1.64 trillion Credit card debt: $1.21 trillion Home equity lines of credit (HELOC): $411 billion Other balances (retail cards, consumer finance loans): $540 billion. Rising Delinquency Rates: While the overall increase in household debt is significant, several sources indicate that delinquency rates remain elevated, raising concerns about potential financial stress for some households. Aggregate delinquency rates reached 4.4% in the second quarter of 2025, a slight increase from the previous quarter. Student loan delinquencies: Increased significantly, with 12.88% of balances moving into serious delinquency (90+ days past due). This surge is attributed to the resumption of reporting previously unreported missed payments from 2020 to 2024. Credit card and auto loan delinquencies: Remained largely stable, with rates of 6.93% and 2.93% respectively. Potential implications: Impact on spending and growth:Elevated debt levels, particularly high-interest debt like credit cards, can reduce households' disposable income, potentially leading to slower consumer spending and, consequently, slower economic growth. Fed's balancing act: The Federal Reserve faces a challenge in navigating high debt levels. Raising interest rates to combat inflation could make debt repayment even more difficult, while not raising rates could allow inflation to worsen. Vulnerability of certain groups:Younger households, particularly those with significant student loan debt, and lower-income households with limited access to affordable credit, may be particularly vulnerable to rising debt and potential delinquencies. Strain on financial institutions:Increased delinquencies can lead to losses for banks and credit unions, potentially impacting their profitability and willingness to lend, which could further restrict credit access for consumers. |
| U.S. GOVERNMENT QUIETLY REVISING JOBS NUMBERS MASSIVELY LOWER!! |
| The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently revised its job growth numbers downward for May and June, resulting in a combined reduction of 258,000 jobs. This significant revision, particularly the largest two-month revision outside of recessions, led to the firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer by President Trump. The revisions, which brought down the average monthly job gains from May through July to a low 35,000, have sparked controversy and raised questions about the accuracy and potential manipulation of government data. Significant Downward Revision:The BLS revised down job growth for May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs, according to USA Today. Impact on Average Monthly Gains:This revision significantly lowered the average monthly job gains from May through July to a mere 35,000, according to Reuters. Largest Revision Outside Recessions:The two-month revision is the largest outside of recessionary periods in recent history, according to USA Today. Industry Breakdown:The largest downward revision occurred in professional and business services, with 358,000 jobs cut, according to SHRM. Other sectors with significant downward revisions include leisure and hospitality (-150,000), retail (-129,000), and manufacturing (-115,000), according to SHRM. President Trump's Response:President Trump publicly criticized the revised numbers, alleging they were "rigged" and intended to negatively impact his administration, according to USA Today. Firing of BLS Commissioner:He subsequently fired the BLS Commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, according to The Wall Street Journal.
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| U.S. IMPOSES 39 PERCENT TARIFF ON SWITZERLAND AFFECTING GOLD PRICE AND AVAILABILITY!! |
| The 39% tariff imposed by the US on Swiss goods is expected to significantly affect the gold market, particularly impacting Swiss gold exports to the US. Here's why: Disruption of Swiss Gold Exports: Switzerland is a major global gold refining center and a significant supplier of gold bars to the US futures market. The 39% tariff on one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, as clarified by US Customs and Border Protection, makes exporting gold from Switzerland to the US economically unviable. This has led to uncertainty among Swiss gold refineries, with some reportedly slowing or halting shipments to the US. Impact on Global Gold Flow:This tariff disrupts the established flow of gold from London to Switzerland (for refining) and then to New York, according to DataDrivenInvestor. The tariffs could affect global gold trading patterns and potentially create price volatility in markets like India, a significant gold consumer. Potential for Price Volatility:US gold futures prices saw a significant jump after the tariff news, reaching record highs, according to AInvest. The disruption to the usual supply chain could contribute to further price fluctuations and potentially create premiums for US gold futures compared to international spot prices. Switzerland's Stance and Future Negotiations:Switzerland has strongly expressed disagreement with the tariffs and is pursuing further discussions with the US government to find a resolution, according to CNBC. In conclusion, while the long-term impact is yet to be fully determined, the 39% tariff has already had a significant and negative effect on the trade of gold between Switzerland and the US, causing uncertainty and price fluctuations in the global gold market.
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| U.S. NATIONAL DEBT PAYMENTS NOW EXCEEDS 1 TRILLION ANUALLY!! |
| Yes, US national debt interest payments have exceeded $1 trillion in recent years and are projected to continue rising, according to various sources like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. 2024The US Treasury Department reported spending over $1.133 trillion in gross interest payments on the national debt in FY2024. After accounting for the interest the government earns on its investments, net interest payments totaled $881 billion. 2025 Projections:The CBO projects net interest costs to reach $952 billion in FY2025 and rise to $1 trillion in 2026. Over the next decade (2025-2034):CBO projections indicate that net interest payments will total $13.8 trillion, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Why are interest payments increasing?Growing National Debt:The national debt has increased significantly! Rising Interest Rates:The Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation have led to higher interest rates, making it more expensive for the government to borrow, according to Harvest Investment Strategies. What are the implications of rising interest payments? Crowding Out Other Spending:Rising interest payments consume a larger portion of the federal budget, potentially crowding out funding for other priorities like infrastructure, education, or healthcare, says the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Economic Impact:High debt levels can impact economic growth by potentially reducing the capital available for private investment and driving up interest rates for businesses and households, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. In conclusion, the US is facing a growing challenge with rising interest payments on the national debt, which is projected to continue increasing in the coming years and will likely have significant consequences for the federal budget and the economy as a whole. |
| SILVER PRICE HITTING ALL TIME HIGHS IN MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES!! |
| Silver prices have recently hit all-time highs in some currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Indian Rupee, Russian Ruble, and African Rand. This surge is driven by a combination of factors, including the impact of US trade tariffs on industrial metals, increased investment demand, and concerns about inflation. Increased Investment Demand:Investors are seeking safe-haven assets due to economic uncertainty and potential currency debasement, with silver benefiting from this trend. Industrial Demand:Silver's dual role as both a precious and industrial metal is also contributing to the price increase, as it's used in various technologies and batteries. It's important to note that silver is running a deficit for the fifth consecutive year while demand is increasing. In the past, silver has seen significant price surges during times of economic instability and inflation fears, with the Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the market in 1980 and the 2011 rally being notable examples. The current surge is driven by a complex interplay of these historical factors and new dynamics in the global economy.
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| U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT NEARING 2 TRILLION ANNUALLY!! |
| US budget deficit: an overview The US budget deficit represents the difference between the federal government's total spending and its total revenue in a given fiscal year. The federal government has run a deficit every year since 2002. Latest figures: Fiscal Year (FY) 2024: The federal deficit reached $1.83 trillion, up $138 billion from the previous year. This marks the fifth consecutive year with a deficit exceeding $1 trillion. As a percentage of GDP, the FY2024 deficit was 6.3%. The projected federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is $1.9 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This is equivalent to 6.2% of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). This deficit is projected to remain relatively flat as a percentage of GDP over the next decade. Deficit:The projected $1.9 trillion deficit for FY2025 is close to the $1.8 trillion deficit recorded in FY2024. Long-term Outlook:Over the next decade, the annual deficit is projected to rise to $2.5 trillion but remain relatively flat as a percentage of GDP (around 6%). Reasons for the Deficit:The deficit is driven by increased spending on Social Security, Medicare, and rising net interest costs.
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| NEW ELECTRIC CAR BATTERY COULD CONSUME HALF OF THE ANNUAL SILVER PRODUCTION!! |
| New solid-state EV batteries, particularly those using a silver-carbon composite like Samsung's, could significantly increase silver demand. Estimates suggest that a typical 100 kWh solid-state battery pack could use approximately 1 kilogram (1000 grams) of silver. This is due to the use of silver in the anode of these batteries, which contributes to their high energy density and other performance benefits. Silver per battery cell:Each battery cell is estimated to require around 5 grams of silver. Silver per vehicle:With a typical 100 kWh battery pack containing multiple cells, the total silver needed per vehicle could be around 1 kilogram. Impact on silver supply:If a significant portion of global EV production adopts this technology, the demand for silver could increase substantially. One analysis suggests that if 20% of global car production switches to these batteries, it could translate to an additional 16,000 metric tons of silver demand annually, according to Legacy Farmers Cooperative. Global silver productionCurrent global silver production is around 25,000-26,000 metric tons per year, making the potential impact of solid-state EV batteries significant.
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| THE REAL NATIONAL DEBT IS $73 to $175 TRILLION!! |
| The United States' national debt, when considering unfunded liabilities, is significantly larger than the headline debt figure. While the national debt (debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings) is around $37.1 trillion, unfunded liabilities, primarily related to Social Security and Medicare, add trillions more, potentially reaching $73.2 to $175.3 trillion or more, according to Cato Institute and Open The Books. This means the true debt burden is many times larger than what is typically reported. National Debt (headline figure): This is the publicly reported debt and includes both debt held by the public (like Treasury bonds held by investors) and intragovernmental holdings (like Social Security trust funds holding government debt). Unfunded Liabilities:These are promises the government has made for future spending (primarily Social Security and Medicare) where the funds to cover those promises have not yet been secured. Estimates of total liabilities:The Financial Report of the United States Government estimates unfunded obligations at $73.2 trillion. Other estimates, such as those from Open The Books, put the figure closer to $175.3 trillion, according to Truth in Accounting. Drivers of unfunded liabilities:Medicare and Social Security are the primary drivers of these unfunded obligations, according to the Cato Institute. Implications:The large gap between the reported national debt and the total liabilities creates significant long-term fiscal challenges for the U.S.
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| TEXAS MAKES GOLD AND SILVER MONEY WITH HR BILL 1056!! |
| Texas has recently enacted legislation, House Bill 1056, that allows residents to use gold and silver as legal tender for everyday transactions. This bill designates precious metals as legal tender and enables Texans to use their gold and silver holdings, stored in the Texas Bullion Depository, for payments through electronic systems. Legal Tender Status:House Bill 1056 designates gold and silver as legal tender in Texas. Texas Bullion Depository:The law utilizes the existing Texas Bullion Depository for storing and managing gold and silver holdings. Electronic Transactions:Texans can use their gold and silver holdings for payments through electronic systems like debit cards and mobile apps. Valuation:The state comptroller's office will determine the market value of the precious metals for transactions. Implementation:The law is set to take effect on May 1, 2027, allowing for a phased implementation of the new system. |
| U.S. DOLLAR HAS LOST 97 PERCENT OF ITS VALUE SINCE 1913!! |
| Specifically, since 1913, the dollar has lost about 97% of its purchasing power. This means that something that cost $1 in 1913 would cost about $30 today. Long-term decline:
The US dollar has experienced a long-term trend of losing purchasing power due to inflation. Specific figures: The dollar has lost approximately 97% of its purchasing power since 1913. Impact of inflation:This loss of purchasing power is largely attributed to inflation, which erodes the value of the dollar over time. The dollar itself has undergone many changes since its inception, not only in face but in substance. Having been removed from the gold standard by President Nixon in 1971 the dollar began to function as a unit of debt rather than an asset. This allowed inflation, fractional reserve banking, and added many other "middlemen" to the monetary system.
This allows for the formation and rise of what we "lovingly" refer to today as the private banking cartel. The Bureau of Engraving and Printing: an arm of the treasury, designs and produces all U.S. paper money. The Federal reserve then distributes this currency to banks and the public. They collect interest on money distributed, service charges, and new bank loans. Even Jerome Powell, the current head of the Federal Reserve, has mentioned in interviews that the current method of servicing our national debt is unsustainable. Because of the private banking sector, just the interest payments by themselves on our 37 Trillion dollar national debt accounts for 39 Percent of our GDP as a country. |
| DON'T BE A FINANCIAL VICTIM!! |
| Our country is vastly different today versus where we were 30 years ago. One area that we have seen a massive increase in is the ability for people around the world to scam people, thank you MR. Internet! We would like to broaden this topic as it applies to precious metals. As the metals have increased dramatically over the last 10 years, it has become more of a target for scammers. In addition, millions of new investors have turned to precious metals as part of their investment portfolios. It is CRITICALLY important that investors understand and take the necessary precautions to make sure who you are dealing with and where you are storing your investments. A few things that should be considered are as follows: (1). Visit local dealers and find one that best accommodates your needs; pricing, delivery, paperwork, established business, referrals, etc. (2). Verify that the product is real, find a dealer that will test the product in front of you when you take delivery. (3). Do not share with friends and neighbors about your purchases, most thefts transpire from a conversation. In other words, you tell someone you trust, but then they tell someone and it leaks out from there. Before you know it, a break-in occurs. IT'S ON YOU to keep it tight-lipped and your products securely stored/hidden away. Only your closest relatives (child, parent, etc.) or significant other should be aware as a backup, to where you store your precious metals, and they need to be sworn to secrecy! (4). If you are going to use a depository to store your product, make sure it really exists, seriously, what are the storage costs, in writing you want the EXACT same product back that you stored with them to begin with! Trust us when we say that scammers are winning today because people are just too trusting. Check and double check everything you do, ask questions, be informed and do your homework, it will save you from a potential catastrophic financial disaster!! |
| MANY COUNTRIES DUMPING THE U.S. DOLLAR!! |
| As of May 2025, many countries have taken steps to reduce or eliminate their reliance on the US dollar in international trade and finance. This global shift, known as de-dollarisation, is driven by various economic, political, and strategic factors. De-dollarisation refers to the process by which countries reduce their dependence on the US dollar for international transactions, reserves, and trade settlements. This shift is often motivated by a desire to achieve greater economic sovereignty, mitigate exposure to US monetary policy, and circumvent potential sanctions. Motivations Behind De-Dollarisation. Economic Sanctions and Political Pressure Countries like Russia and Iran have faced extensive US sanctions, prompting them to seek alternatives to the dollar to safeguard their economies. By conducting trade in local currencies or other major currencies, they aim to reduce the impact of such sanctions. Diversification of Foreign Exchange Reserves Central banks are diversifying their reserves to include a mix of currencies, such as the euro, Chinese yuan, and gold, to mitigate risks associated with holding large amounts of US dollars. Development of Alternative Payment Systems To decrease dependence on US-controlled financial systems like SWIFT, nations are creating their own payment infrastructures. For example, Russia has launched the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), while China has developed the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Russia: In response to extensive US sanctions, Russia has accelerated its de-dollarisation efforts, promoting the use of the ruble and other currencies in trade. Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine. These nations are shifting towards local currencies and alternative financial systems to enhance economic sovereignty and reduce exposure to US policies. BRICS Nations and New Entrants The BRICS bloc—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has been at the forefront of de-dollarisation: China: Promoting the yuan in international trade and establishing currency swap agreements to facilitate transactions without the dollar. India and Brazil: Exploring bilateral trade agreements in local currencies to reduce dollar dependence. In 2025, BRICS expanded to include: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand: Southeast Asian nations seeking greater financial autonomy. Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan: Countries aiming to diversify their economic partnerships and reduce reliance on Western financial systems. In conclusion, de-dollarisation is gaining momentum in 2025, with several countries actively reducing their reliance on the US dollar.
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| CENTRAL BANKS NOW OWN 1/5 OF ALL GOLD EVER MINED!! |
| Central banks collectively own a significant portion of the total gold ever mined, accounting for approximately 17%. Key points about central bank gold holdings: Growing reserves: Global central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with recent years seeing record purchase levels. Reasons for holding gold: Central banks are motivated by risk mitigation, inflation hedging, and promoting economic stability. Safe haven asset: Gold's perceived role as a safe haven asset, especially during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, is a major driver of central bank demand. Diversification: Central banks also see gold as a way to diversify their reserves, particularly away from U.S. dollar holdings. Reflecting the growing importance of gold in global reserve management strategies. |
| GOLD TO SILVER RATIO NEAR HISTORIC HIGHS!! |
| What the ratio means:
The gold-to-silver ratio is the number of silver ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold. The gold-to-silver ratio is currently elevated, meaning gold is more expensive relative to silver than it has been historically. While not at its absolute highest point (which occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic), it is near the higher end of its historical range. This suggests that silver may be undervalued relative to gold, making it potentially a good time to buy silver. During this extreme ratio of gold to silver, we saw a ratio fluctuation from the high of 114 back to 65 within a year! Those who bought silver during this high ratio were rewarded with larger gains as well as an opportunity to reinvest their profited silver back into gold as the ratio evened. This is a smart money move using market conditions to ones advantage. Current levels:
The current ratio (90) is significantly higher than the long-term average (around 40), indicating that gold is relatively expensive compared to silver. Investment implications:
A high ratio suggests that silver might be undervalued, potentially offering a buying opportunity, according to some financial websites. Conversely, a low ratio might indicate that gold is relatively cheaper and a good time to invest. Extreme levels:
Historically, when the ratio has been very high, it has often been followed by silver outperforming gold.
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| COMEX SEEING RECORD DELIVERIES IN SILVER!! |
| COMEX silver deliveries have recently reached unprecedented levels, with May 2025 seeing the third-highest delivery volume on record. This surge is partly due to a significant increase in net new contracts that are settled for immediate delivery, indicating strong physical demand. The 12-month moving average of COMEX silver deliveries has also surpassed its previous peak from early 2021. Record-breaking May:
The May COMEX silver contract saw a massive surge in deliveries, with some reports indicating over 16,000 contracts being settled for physical delivery which is up from the 9,044 COMEX silver contracts delivered in May 2025. Further more, on average, a typical delivery month sees about 3,000-4,000 deliveries.
Net New Contracts:
A substantial portion of the delivery volume is attributed to net new contracts, where investors open positions and immediately request physical delivery.
Rising Inventories:
While deliveries are high, COMEX silver inventories have also seen an increase, with some reports indicating a surge in inventory levels.
Implications:
The surge in deliveries, coupled with rising physical demand, suggests a potential shift in the market, potentially signaling higher prices for silver. |
| CHINA BUYING GOLD AND SILVER MINES WORLDWIDE!! |
| International Acquisitions:
Chinese firms are expanding gold mining operations in Africa, particularly in South Africa and Ghana, which are the continent's largest gold exporters.
China-African Precious Metals Company (CAPM) is investing in gold mining in South Africa, including revitalizing a gold processing plant in the Witwatersrand basin.
In October 2024, China's Zijin Mining acquired the Akyem gold mine project in Ghana from Newmont Corp for $1 billion.
Zijin Mining has also been involved in other international deals, including acquisitions in Canada, Colombia, and Guyana.
Beyond gold, China has shown strong interest in acquiring critical minerals, with companies like Zijin Mining acquiring stakes in lithium miners, according to Bloomberg.
Chinese entities own or have stakes in nearly all of the producing cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Chinese mining and battery companies have invested $4.5 billion in lithium mines in the past two years, significantly contributing to lithium projects in Africa. Reasons for Acquisitions:
Diversification of reserves: China's central bank is diversifying its reserves, reducing reliance on the US dollar and increasing its gold holdings.
Geopolitical and economic uncertainties: Global uncertainties contribute to central banks, including China's, adding gold to their holdings.
"Gold for Infrastructure" initiative: China is securing mining rights through agreements that exchange infrastructure development for long-term gold supply.
Securing critical minerals: China is strategically acquiring mines globally, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean, to secure access to critical minerals for its industries and military modernization.
De-dollarization efforts: China's gold accumulation aligns with efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar.
Industrial demand for silver: China's rapid industrialization and a growing renewable energy sector are driving demand for silver, which is a key component in electronics, batteries, and solar panels. |
| CENTRAL BANKS REPATRIATING THEIR GOLD |
| Central banks are increasingly repatriating gold, bringing it back to their domestic vaults, and also significantly increasing their gold purchases. This trend is driven by a combination of factors, including geopolitical instability, concerns about the US dollar, and a desire to diversify reserve assets. Reasons for Repatriation and Increased Purchases: Geopolitical Uncertainty: The invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the subsequent sanctions, highlighted the risks associated with holding assets in foreign countries, particularly those perceived as potential adversaries. This led many countries to repatriate their gold, bringing it back under their direct control. Dollar Concerns: Some central banks are reducing their reliance on the US dollar and diversifying their reserves into gold, citing concerns about potential inflation and the stability of the dollar. Diversification: Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and a store of value, providing a hedge against economic uncertainty and potential financial crises. Increased Confidence in Gold: As more central banks repatriate and accumulate gold, it creates a positive feedback loop, reinforcing the perception of gold as a valuable and reliable asset.
Examples of Repatriation: Germany, Netherlands, India, and Poland among others.
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| STATES MAKING GOLD AND SILVER MONEY AGAIN!! |
| Several states have enacted legislation that acknowledges gold and silver as legal tender or have removed sales taxes on these precious metals: Florida : Has the most comprehensive legislation, allowing electronically transacted gold and silver as legal tender alongside the dollar starting in 2026. Utah: Was the first state to pass the Utah Legal Tender Act in 2011.
Wyoming : In 2018, established a law to eliminate the taxation of gold and silver bullion, effectively treating them as tender free from sales tax.
Oklahoma: Recognizes gold and silver U.S.-minted coins as legal tender and exempts them from taxation through Senate Bill 862.
Louisiana: Reaffirmed gold and silver as legal tender in 2024.
Other States: Arizona, Kansas, South Carolina, and Texas have also recognized gold and silver as legal tender. States with Bills Recognizing Gold and Silver as Legal Tender:Missouri: A bill for an income tax deduction for capital gains from the exchange of gold and silver is currently being considered.
Indiana: Introduced Senate Bill 99 to declare US-minted gold and silver coins as legal tender and tax-exempt.
Tennessee: Is waiting for the outcome of Senate Bill 0350 which calls for the sales tax exemption of gold and silver coins. States with Goldbacks: Utah, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Florida: Have Goldbacks, which are a form of voluntary local currency with intricate designs crafted from 24-karat gold.
Oklahoma and Arizona: Are working to introduce Goldback series. |
| U.S. BANKS CALLING FOR HIGHER GOLD AND SILVER PRICES!! |
| Several U.S. banks and financial institutions are forecasting higher prices for gold and silver, particularly for 2025 and beyond. Bank of America: Has the most aggressive stance, calling for $4,000 gold and $40 silver by late 2025 or early 2026, citing factors like structural de-dollarization and reserve diversification. J.P. Morgan: Predicts gold prices to reach $3,675/oz by the end of 2025 and exceed $4,000/oz by Q2 2026. They also forecast silver prices to rise towards $39/oz by the end of 2025. J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citi Bank among others are also calling for both Gold and Silver to rise in price. Strong Central Bank Purchases : Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are consistently buying large quantities of gold, adding over 1,200 tonnes to their reserves in 2024 alone. This trend is expected to continue.
Increased Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Uncertainty : Gold and silver are seen as safe-haven assets during times of global instability, recession fears, and policy uncertainty.
Silver's Dual Role: Silver benefits from both monetary appeal and its crucial role in industrial production, particularly in growing sectors like solar and battery technology.
De-dollarization: Some experts see gold as a hedge against a potential decline in the U.S. dollar's reserve status.
Inflation Concerns: Concerns about persistent inflation pressures and fiscal sustainability in major economies create a favorable macroeconomic environment for precious metals. |
| BRICK NATIONS BUYING RECORD AMOUNTS OF GOLD!! |
| The gold price has continued reaching record highs throughout consecutive weeks, and experts see a clear connection to the massive gold purchases from the BRICS nations. China, in particular, has acquired over 2,800 tons of gold in the last two years, and other BRICS countries have also significantly increased their gold reserves. Gold is being heavily purchased around the world to diversify from the U.S.dollar. |
| SILVER HITS HIGHEST PRICE IN 13 YEARS!! |
| Silver briefly reached $37 per ounce this June 2025. It had previously seen levels around $37 in February of 2012. Prior to that, in April of 2011, silver's price rose to a high of $48.70. June 2025: Silver is reaching its highest level in over 13 years due to industrial demand and supply deficit. With the recent physical shortages at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) expect the price to continue it's upward trend. We here at CR Gold and Silver are seeing record amounts of silver sales! |
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7511 Boulevard 26, North Richland Hills, TX 76180 (817) 485-2646 |
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