| Gold $4,209.40 +4.60
Silver $57.23 -1.30
Platinum $1,660.40 -19.10
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| THE 30 YEAR TREASURY NEARING ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008 IN THE FACE OF RATE CUTS!! |
| The statement is accurate, as the 30-year Treasury yield has recently been at levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. This rise is driven by market concerns over inflation, high government deficits, and increased Treasury bond issuance, which makes long-term government debt less attractive and forces yields to rise to compensate investors. Reasons for the rising yield: Inflation concerns: The bond market anticipates continued inflation, which can erode the value of future bond payments, pushing investors to demand higher yields. Increased bond supply: The U.S. government is issuing more long-term bonds to finance its growing deficits, and a larger supply of bonds can lower prices and raise yields. Market expectations: The market is wary of the U.S. fiscal situation being unsustainable, and the Federal Reserve cutting short-term rates while inflation is accelerating could be perceived as a sign of being "lackadaisical" about inflation, which also pushes yields higher, say Wolf Street. What this means for you: Higher borrowing costs: Higher Treasury yields can lead to higher borrowing costs for consumers, such as on mortgages, as these rates are often benchmarked against Treasuries. Expect "MONEY PRINTING" any day now. 12/4/2025 |
| INDIA IMPORTS ANOTHER 51 MILLION OUNCES OF SILVER IN OCTOBER!! |
| Reports indicate that India imported approximately
51 million ounces of silver (around 1,600 metric tons) in October 2025. This massive surge, which contributed to a sixfold increase in silver imports compared to the previous year in value terms, was primarily driven by strong festive and wedding season demand, as well as industrial needs. Key Details of the Silver Import Surge: Volume: The total import volume was roughly 51 million ounces (Moz), or 1,600 metric tons. Value: In value terms, silver imports reached $2.72 billion in October 2025, a significant jump of over 530% from $0.43 billion in October 2024. Source: The majority of the silver came from the U.K. Driving Factors: Strong demand during the festive season, including Diwali, when buying precious metals is considered auspicious. Pent-up demand following a period of subdued imports in previous months. Robust industrial demand for applications in solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles (EVs). Significant investment demand, leading to record inflows into silver ETFs. Economic Impact: This surge in silver imports, along with record gold imports, caused India's trade deficit to widen to an all-time high of $41.68 billion in October 2025. Market Conditions: The high demand created a shortage in the local market, forcing ETFs and bullion dealers to pay hefty premiums. 12/2/2025 |
| THE LBMA IS STILL RUNNING SILVER SHORTAGES!! |
| Reports from late 2025 indicate the
LBMA market is still experiencing significant tightness and a potential physical silver shortage, driven by years of global demand outstripping supply and dwindling accessible inventories. Key Details of the LBMA Silver Situation: Persistent Deficit: The global silver market has faced a physical supply deficit since 2020, with 2025 marking the fifth consecutive year where demand (industrial, investment, etc.) has exceeded mine supply. The 2025 shortfall is projected to be one of the largest in recent decades. Dwindling Inventories: LBMA vault inventories have fallen around 30% since their peak in June 2021. The amount of "free float" silver (metal not already earmarked for ETFs or other allocated holdings) in London dropped to a critically low level of less than 155 million ounces in October 2025, enough to cover only about six weeks of global demand. Market Stress Indicators: The supply shortage has led to extreme market conditions, including: Backwardation: A market condition where the spot price is higher than future prices, signaling immediate demand for physical metal. High Lease Rates: The cost to borrow silver has surged to as high as 30% in some cases, and even over 100% per annum at one point, as traders short the metal struggle to find physical inventory to deliver. Spot vs. Futures Premium: The spot price in London briefly moved to a 5% premium over the COMEX futures price, an unprecedented event that highlights the physical market stress. Emergency Measures: The market turmoil in October 2025 saw emergency injections of metal (reports mention a 50 million ounce injection) and a rush to ship silver bars to London to cover short positions. Some sources suggest these measures only delayed a potential crisis. Structural Issues: Most market experts agree that a lack of investment in new silver mines over the last decade and the fact that most silver is a byproduct of other metal mining operations makes it difficult to quickly increase supply. In short, the LBMA is navigating a system under significant stress, with low physical inventories and high demand. You can monitor current LBMA data on the official LBMA website. 11/25/2025 |
| SILVER DEFICIT WHEN COUNTING ETF HOLDINGS WILL BE 300 MILLION OZ FOR 2025!! |
| Sources have suggested a potential silver deficit of up to 300 million ounces when accounting for high ETF inflows, the widely cited forecast from the
Silver Institute's April 2025 World Silver Survey projects a lower, though still significant, deficit of approximately 95 to 118 million ounces for 2025. The silver market is experiencing its fifth consecutive year of a structural supply deficit, where overall demand outstrips new supply. Official Forecasts: Projections from the Silver Institute and its research consultancy Metals Focus estimate the 2025 market deficit between 95 million and 118 million ounces. Market Tensions: This strong investment demand, coupled with constrained mine supply and high industrial use (especially in solar panels and electronics), has led to market tightness, record-high lease rates, and some analysts pointing to the potential for the deficit to reach or exceed 300 million ounces under certain conditions. 11/24/2025 |
| CHINA BUYS GOLD FOR 12TH STRAIGHT MONTH MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. DOLLAR!! |
| Data from the People's Bank of China (PBoC) shows the central bank
purchased gold for a 12th consecutive month in October 2025. This sustained purchasing spree is part of a broader strategy to diversify its foreign exchange reserves, reduce reliance on the US dollar, and build financial security. Details of the Gold Purchases: Duration: The PBoC has reported additions to its gold reserves for twelve straight months, starting in November 2024 and continuing through October 2025. This follows an earlier 18-month buying streak that had paused in May 2024. Share of Reserves: Gold's share of China's total foreign exchange reserves has increased to 8% from 5.5% at the start of the current buying period. This is a record high for China. Impact on Price: This consistent demand from China and other global central banks has been a key factor in supporting record gold prices, with gold spot prices reaching a record of $4,381 per ounce in October 2025. Reasons for the Purchases: Diversification: To de-risk its portfolio by diversifying away from the US dollar and US Treasuries amid geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about government debt and the stability of fiat currencies. Economic Security: The buying is viewed as an effort to guard the Chinese economy against potential Western sanctions. Strategic Asset: Gold is considered a key strategic asset by central banks looking to preserve value and navigate a fragmented and uncertain global economic landscape. 11/20/2025 |
| INDONESIA PUTS TARIFFS ON GOLD TO PREVENT IT FROM LEAVING THE COUNTRY!! |
| Indonesia is planning to impose export taxes of up to 15% on gold, which is expected to take effect in early 2026, to encourage domestic processing and build a local bullion banking system. Details of the Policy: Implementation Date: The new export duties are expected to be implemented sometime in early 2026, as the legal documents are currently being finalized. Tax Structure: The tariffs, ranging from 7.5% to 15%, will be progressive and based on two main factors. Value-Added Processing: Higher rates will be applied to raw or less processed forms of gold (like gold dore or granules), while lower rates will apply to more refined products (like minted bars) to incentivize domestic refining. Global Prices: The duties will be adjusted according to global gold prices. Higher rates (up to 15%) are likely to be applied when the price of gold exceeds a certain threshold (e.g., $3,200 per troy ounce), to capture windfall profits for the state. Objectives: The primary goals are to boost state revenue, encourage the creation of more value-added products from domestic resources, and ensure a sufficient supply of gold within the country for a developing bullion banking ecosystem. This is part of Indonesia's broader strategy of resource nationalism, which has seen similar export bans on raw minerals like nickel and bauxite in recent years. This measure is a significant policy shift aimed at capturing more value from its natural resources domestically. 11/19/2025 |
| FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS NOW RECOMMENDING A 20 PERCENT ALLOCATION TO GOLD!! |
| A 60% equities, 20% bonds, 20% gold (60/20/20) asset allocation strategy has been recently proposed by some major financial institutions, notably the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Morgan Stanley, as a potential successor to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. This recommendation is driven by current macroeconomic concerns, particularly persistent inflation and the belief that bonds have lost their effectiveness as a reliable hedge against market downturns and inflation. Rationale for the 60/20/20 Model: Ineffectiveness of Bonds: In an environment of high government debt and inflation, the traditional inverse correlation between stocks and bonds has broken down, diminishing bonds' ability to provide balance during equity market stress. Gold as an "Anti-Fragile" Asset: Gold is seen as an "anti-fragile" asset that can perform well during volatile conditions and act as a superior inflation hedge compared to U.S. Treasuries. Diversification: The allocation of a substantial portion (20%) to a non-correlated, hard asset like gold is intended to enhance portfolio resilience and risk-adjusted returns. Addressing Current Economic Landscape: This model is presented as a response to an evolving global economic landscape characterized by geopolitical instability and doubts about the long-term stability of fiat currencies. 11/17/2025 |
| GLOBAL SILVER PANEL PRODUCTION COULD TAKE 1/5 ANNUAL SILVER PRODUCTION BY 2030!! |
| Global solar panel production could significantly increase silver demand by 2030, with forecasts suggesting it could consume up to 20% of the world's total silver supply. This surge is driven by the rapid growth of the solar industry, with some projections showing an almost 170% increase in demand for silver by 2030, or approximately 273 million ounces. The growing demand is putting pressure on silver supply, especially since the trend of reducing the amount of silver per panel has plateaued, and new technologies can even require more silver. Impact on silver demand: Projected increase: By 2030, the solar industry may use up to one-fifth of the total global silver demand, a significant jump from previous years. Current consumption: In 2023, photovoltaics (PV) already consumed about 142 million ounces of silver, or 13.8% of total usage. Technological shifts: While there have been efforts to reduce silver use, new technologies like TOPCon and SHJ cells require more silver than older PERC cells, potentially driving demand up even further, according to ScienceDirect.com. Implications for silver supply: Supply-demand gap: This projected demand growth comes at a time when silver supply, much of which comes as a byproduct from other mines, has not kept pace, according to the Payne Institute. Risk of shortages: The combination of high demand growth and limited supply could lead to price increases and potential shortages. Recycling impact: While recycling will be crucial for long-term sustainability, it will not be able to meet the short-term demand increase, as most panels have a long lifespan, notes Wiley Online Library. 11/11/2025 |
| OCTOBER JOB CUTS MOST SINCE 2003!! |
| The October 2025 job numbers were the worst for the month since 2003, with
over 153,000 job cuts announced by U.S. employers, according to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This represents the highest level of layoffs for October in 22 years and is attributed to cost-cutting measures and the adoption of AI. Total job cuts: Over 153,000 job cuts were announced in October 2025. Key Details from Private Reports: Job Cuts Announced: U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October 2025, a 175% increase from October 2024. Comparison to 2003: This figure represents the highest number of job cuts announced for the month of October since 2003, when 171,874 cuts were recorded. Year-to-Date Totals: The total number of job cuts announced in the first ten months of 2025 surpassed one million, a 65% increase from the same period in 2024. This is the worst year for total job cuts since the 2009 recession. Industry Impact: Warehousing and technology sectors were among the most affected, with artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and cost-cutting cited as primary reasons. Hiring Data: Other private data, such as from ADP, presented a mixed picture, showing a modest gain in jobs added, though overall indicators suggest a general cooling of the labor market. 11/10/2025 |
| CHINA SEEKING COUNTRIES TO STORE THEIR GOLD WITHIN CHINA!! |
| China is actively seeking to act as a
custodian for foreign nations' gold reserves, and reports indicate that Cambodia is the first country to take up this offer. Key Details: Goal: China's primary objective is to build a global financial system less dependent on the U.S. dollar and traditional Western financial centers like London and New York. By becoming a major global bullion hub, it aims to increase the international role and influence of its own currency, the yuan. Mechanism: The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the nation's central bank, is using the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) to court central banks from "friendly" or non-aligned countries. The SGE has opened its first offshore vault in Hong Kong to facilitate this initiative. Targeted Assets: The initiative primarily focuses on encouraging new gold purchases by other central banks to be stored within China's borders, rather than convincing them to relocate their existing stockpiles from current locations. Motivation for Other Countries: Nations are increasingly diversifying their reserves away from the U.S. dollar and seeking alternative storage solutions due to rising geopolitical tensions and fears of potential sanctions or asset seizures, making China's offer a viable option for some. Cambodia's Role: Cambodia plans to store some of its gold reserves in a vault registered with the SGE in Shenzhen's bonded zone. Other countries have reportedly expressed interest as they weigh the benefits of diversification. 11/6/25 |
| CHINA ADDS SILVER TO ITS CONTROLLED EXPORTS LIST!! |
| China has added silver to its list of controlled exports, a move that places it alongside other strategic resources like rare earth minerals. This action is part of broader policy changes that also include the removal of a VAT exemption for certain platinum transactions, and it indicates a more rigorous government strategy for managing outbound trade of key resources. While the initial market reaction was one of apprehension leading to price drops for gold and silver, the markets later showed resilience and a robust rebound. Export controls: By adding silver to its list of controlled exports, China is implementing more stringent management over its outbound trade of the metal. Impact on markets: The policy changes, effective in early November 2025, initially caused prices for gold and silver to fall sharply, with significant drops in Asian trading. Market rebound: Despite the initial decline, both gold and silver prices rebounded later the same day. Broader policy context: The silver inclusion is part of a larger, systematic recalibration of China's precious metals sector that also includes tax reforms, such as ending a VAT exemption for platinum transactions. Significance: These changes signal a more stringent approach from Beijing toward its precious metals trade and could have long-term effects on supply chains, pricing, and the strategic positioning of these metals within China's economy. 11/4/2025 |
| MARKETWATCH AND LARGE BANKS CALLING FOR $60-$65 SILVER AND $5000 GOLD!! |
| Several analysts and institutions have indeed made predictions for
$5,000 gold and $60 (or more) silver, with these forecasts being reported by MarketWatch and other financial news outlets. These targets are generally set for the 2026 timeframe and are driven by ongoing economic uncertainty, central bank demand, and industrial use (for silver). Key points regarding these predictions: Bank of America (BofA): Analysts, as reported by MarketWatch, have raised their price targets to $5,000 for gold and $65 for silver by 2026. Analysts at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) annual conference and the British research firm Metals Focus also expect gold to reach $5,000 an ounce and silver to hit $60 next year. Institutional Sentiment: Generally points towards the $5,000 mark by 2026 The predictions are based on factors including persistent inflation, geopolitical instability, expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, and strong industrial demand for silver (especially in green energy and technology). 11/3/2025 |
| INDIA HAS IMPORTED OVER 15,000 TONNES OF SILVER IN LAST 3 YEARS!! |
| Based on reporting for the period from 2022 to 2024, India has imported over 15,000 tonnes of silver
. While imports fluctuate, the cumulative tonnage for the last three years easily surpasses 15,000 tonnes, primarily driven by industrial and investment demand. Year-by-year silver import data: 2022: India's silver imports hit a record high of 9,450 tonnes for the calendar year. This surge was attributed to pent-up demand after pandemic lockdowns and restocking by manufacturers and retailers. 2023: After the previous year's record imports, volumes dropped sharply to 3,625 tonnes. This reflects the Indian silver market's tendency to have a high volume year followed by a low one. 2024: Imports saw a significant rebound, with 4,554 tonnes imported in just the first half of the year. Analysts projected total imports for 2024 could exceed 7,000 tonnes. Factors driving high silver imports: Record-high 2022 imports: Demand was high across all segments, including jewelry, silverware, and industrial applications. Rising industrial demand: Growing industries, particularly solar panel manufacturing and electronics, require large quantities of silver. Shifting trade routes: The India and UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) went into effect in 2022, offering lower import tariffs. This caused a paradigm shift in the supply chain, with imports from the UAE increasing dramatically. Investment appetite: Investment in silver increased as it gained favor with both rural and urban investors as a store of value. The introduction of Silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in India also attracted new investment. India is expected to import another 5,500 to 6,000 tonnes in 2025! 10/30/2025 |
| INFLATION CONTINUES TO RISE AS FED RESUMES RATE CUTS!! |
| According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual inflation rate increased to 3.0% in September 2025, up from 2.9% in August
. Though this annual rate has been fluctuating, it is higher than the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. Key inflation details: September CPI data: In September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the cost of a basket of consumer goods and services, rose 0.3% over the month. On an annual basis, the 12-month increase stood at 3.0%. Core vs. headline inflation: The Bureau of Labor Statistics also measures "core inflation," which excludes volatile food and energy prices. In September, the annual rate for core inflation was 3.0%, down slightly from August. Contributing factors: Several categories experienced price increases in September. The cost of gasoline and energy rose, as did shelter, airline fares, recreation, and household furnishings. Impact of tariffs: Economists note that recently imposed tariffs by the U.S. government on goods from certain countries are contributing to the upward pressure on prices. Consumer sentiment: Surveys conducted in October 2025 indicate high levels of consumer concern over inflation. Many Americans feel that economic conditions are poor and that their wages are not keeping up with rising prices. Context for the Federal Reserve: The uptick in inflation creates a complex challenge for the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate to keep both inflation and unemployment low. The annual inflation rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, but the monthly increase was lower than some economists expected. With the job market also showing signs of cooling, the Fed must consider both inflation and employment data when deciding on future monetary policy. Expect the fed to do what they always do PRINT MONEY, and DEVALUE THE CURRENCY! 10/29/2025 |
| INDIA MAKES SILVER 10 TO 1 WITH GOLD FOR COLLATERAL LOANS!! |
| India's Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has established a 10:1 silver-to-gold ratio for collateral, allowing banks to accept silver as security for loans, effective April 1, 2026. This move allows individuals and businesses to use silver as collateral for loans, a historic step for the financial inclusion of silver in India. This is a significant change as silver is not currently used as collateral. Key details of the new guidelines: Silver as collateral: Banks and non-banking financial companies can now accept silver as collateral for loans, much like gold. Silver-to-gold collateral ratio: The RBI has set a reference ratio of 10 kilograms of silver to 1 kilogram of gold for collateral purposes. Loan-to-value (LTV) ratios: The LTV for silver-backed loans will vary based on the loan amount, similar to existing gold loan guidelines: 85% for loans up to ₹2.5 lakh- 80% for loans between ₹2.5 lakh and ₹5 lakh- 75% for loans above ₹5 lakh. Loan limits: The total weight of silver ornaments pledged per borrower cannot exceed 10 kg. Effective date: These new regulations are set to be implemented from April 1, 2026. This new policy is seen as a move to increase credit access for farmers, MSMEs, and other individuals by expanding the collateral options available to them and further integrating silver into the formal financial system. Just as a reminder TEXAS along with several other states have passed laws making gold and silver money again! We can all see where this is heading! 10/27/25 K.
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| SILVER PRICE BASED ON PAPER CONTRACTS NOT PHYSICAL!! |
| Yes, the silver market is heavily influenced by highly leveraged paper contracts, which creates a complex pricing dynamic
. The silver spot price, which represents the real-time cost for immediate delivery, is primarily determined by trading on futures exchanges like the COMEX in New York, not by physical supply and demand. How paper contracts influence silver prices: Massive trading volume: The volume of silver traded through paper contracts—including futures, options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—far exceeds the amount of available physical silver. For instance, some estimates suggest the paper-to-physical silver ratio may be as high as 400-to-1. Amplified volatility and speculation: High leverage in the futures market allows traders to control vast amounts of silver with a small amount of capital. This can lead to sharp and rapid price fluctuations based on trader sentiment and speculation rather than physical market fundamentals. Price suppression allegations: Critics, including precious metals experts, argue that the sheer volume of paper contracts can create an illusion of abundant supply, potentially suppressing the price of silver below what would be dictated by physical market forces. This is a long-standing criticism of the market. Dominance of cash settlements: Only a very small percentage of futures contracts are settled by physical delivery. This ability to settle in cash mitigates the risk of failing to deliver physical metal, further separating the paper market price from the realities of physical supply and demand. The interplay of paper and physical markets: Physical shortages drive premiums: Strong physical demand, especially from industrial uses in sectors like electronics and solar panels, can lead to a divergence between paper and physical prices. During shortages, physical bullion and coin buyers may pay significant premiums above the spot price. A "structural problem": Some analysts note that the recent shipment of physical silver from the U.S. and China to London addressed a short-term issue but did not fix the long-term structural deficit of physical silver needed to back all the outstanding paper claims. 10/23/25 |
| RETAIL SILVER SHORTAGE HERE WITH NO END IN SIGHT!! |
| A retail silver bullion shortage is currently occurring due to several factors, including a persistent global demand exceeding supply and supply chain strains from industrial use, particularly in green energy. This has led to empty shelves at retailers, high premiums over spot prices, and logistical bottlenecks, as refineries are overwhelmed. The situation is compounded by increased investment demand for physical bullion, and a lack of available silver in the market. Causes of the shortage: Industrial demand: A significant driver is the increasing use of silver in industrial applications, especially for solar panels (photovoltaics) and electronics, which consumes a large and growing portion of the available supply. Persistent deficit: For five consecutive years, global demand for silver has outstripped the supply from mines and recycling. This ongoing structural deficit has depleted inventories. Supply chain constraints: Silver is often a by-product of mining other metals, meaning its supply cannot quickly increase in response to price changes. Refineries are currently overloaded, leading to delays in processing and minting new coins and bars. Investment and speculation: A recent surge in investment demand for physical silver, including purchases of ETFs and physical coins and bars, has further strained the physical market and exacerbated the shortage. Logistical issues: The flow of silver has been impacted by increased demand in various regions, with reports of empty shelves and delayed shipments from major mints in places like Australia, Canada, and the U.K. Effects of the shortage: High premiums: The price of physical silver is now trading at a significant premium over the paper spot price, as retailers and investors are willing to pay more to secure available metal. Empty shelves: Retailers, both in the U.S. and internationally, are experiencing stockouts and long backorders for silver bullion products.
Refineries are facing significant backlogs, with some reporting being booked months in advance, which slows down the production of new bullion. 10/20/25
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| INDIA HALTS INFLOWS INTO SILVER ETF'S DUE TO SHORTAGES!! |
| Following a severe physical silver shortage and soaring domestic prices, several Indian mutual fund houses have temporarily halted new investments in their silver Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) products
. The suspension, which began in mid-October 2025, is a protective measure for investors, as the price of ETFs was trading at a significant premium to its true value. Reasons for the shortage and suspension: Premium on domestic silver: Due to tight supply and high demand, the price of silver in India was trading at a premium of 5% to 12% over global benchmarks. This made it nearly impossible for fund houses to buy physical silver at fair market prices to create new ETF units. Surging investor demand: Indian investors have shown high interest in silver ETFs, especially in 2025, pushing inflows to record levels. The sharp increase in silver prices, combined with festive season demand, has put a further strain on available supply. Underlying supply constraints: Globally, silver has been in a structural deficit for several years, with demand outpacing production. About 70% of silver is a by-product of mining other metals, limiting the industry's ability to quickly increase output. Drop in imports: Despite India being the world's largest silver consumer, imports fell significantly during the first eight months of 2025. This, along with international supply issues like higher lease rates in London, has exacerbated the domestic shortage. 10/16/25 |
| SILVER LEASE RATES SURGE TO ALL TIME HIGHS!! |
| Silver lease rates have surged to over 35% on a one-month basis, a multi-year high driven by a tight physical supply and increased demand, particularly from short sellers. This spike indicates high borrowing costs for physical silver, reflecting market stress and scarcity. Surge in rates:
The cost to borrow silver, or its lease rate, has increased dramatically, reaching over 35% on a one-month annualized basis. Market tightness:
The elevated rates signal a scarcity of physical silver in the market. This is partly due to a rush to ship metal to markets like New York earlier in the year. Increased demand:
The surge is driven by both speculative demand from short sellers needing to borrow metal and potentially strong industrial demand, with holders reluctant to lend. Impact on prices:
High lease rates are a sign of market stress and have coincided with a rally in silver's spot price, which has reached record highs recently. 10/14/25
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| SILVER IN BACKWARDATION IN EUROPE AND OTHER GLOBAL MARKETS!! |
| Recent analysis confirms that the silver market in Europe, along with other major global exchanges, has been in backwardation, an unusual and significant market condition
. This indicates a shortage of physical silver for immediate delivery, as demonstrated by the spot price rising above the price of future delivery contracts. What backwardation means for silver: Backwardation is a clear signal of near-term physical scarcity and high immediate demand. This is the inverse of the usual market situation, called "contango," where the futures price is higher than the spot price to account for the costs of financing, storage, and insurance. Evidence of backwardation in the silver market includes: Intraday pricing: The spot price for silver has been observed trading above the front-month futures contract price during trading sessions. Wider EFP/cobasis spreads: The exchange-for-physical (EFP) and cash-and-carry (cobasis) spreads have widened, indicating that counterparties are paying a premium to convert futures exposure into physical metal. Vault withdrawals: Evidence of withdrawals from exchange and silver ETF vaults suggests a tightening of deliverable inventory. High dealer premiums: Premiums for physical silver products from dealers have increased significantly above the spot price, showing the shortage has reached both institutional and retail buyers. Rising lease rates: Silver lease rates have spiked, signaling significant borrowing pressure for physical silver. Factors driving the silver shortage in Europe: Several factors have contributed to the physical silver shortage and subsequent backwardation in the European market: Persistent supply deficits: Overall, global mine production of silver has lagged behind demand for several years. Analysts forecast a significant supply deficit for 2025, one of the largest on record. Growing industrial demand: Industrial applications, particularly the rapidly expanding electric vehicle (EV) and electronics sectors, are consuming an increasing amount of silver. Industrial demand is estimated to make up nearly 60% of silver usage in 2025. Inflation and instability: Increasing investment demand for physical silver as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty is adding pressure to the market. Both institutional and retail investors have been turning to silver-backed products and bullion. Supply chain disruptions: Ongoing supply chain challenges throughout 2025 have exacerbated the issue of physical scarcity by keeping near-term supply limited. Market implications: The backwardation in the silver market could lead to a significant price rally. Precedent for price spikes: Similar periods of backwardation in silver, such as in 2011, 2015, and 2020, were followed by substantial price increases within a matter of months. Potential for a run on physical silver: The structural supply deficits combined with a potential break of the $50 price point could trigger broader public interest. This, in turn, could lead to a significant run on physical silver, which would further accelerate price spikes. Coming to a country near you real soon! |
| CENTRAL BANKS TO BUY OVER 1,000 TONS OF GOLD IN 2025!! |
| Central banks are projected to buy over a thousand tons of gold in 2025, a level of demand that has exceeded 1,000 metric tons annually since 2022, driven by a global diversification away from the U.S. dollar and a response to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, according to reports by Reuters, Euronews.com, and other financial news outlets. Key Drivers for Continued Gold Purchases: Diversification away from the U.S. dollar: Many countries are reducing their reliance on the U.S. dollar due to concerns about its role as a global reserve currency, with gold offering a non-debt-based alternative, according to a report from www.americanstandardgold.com. Geopolitical uncertainty: Global conflicts and political instability have made fiat-based reserve assets riskier, leading central banks to favor gold as a safer and more reliable store of value, notes. Hedging against inflation: The period of high inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic and government money printing has reinforced the need for gold as a hedge against price increases and economic instability, according to a report from www.equiti.com. Impact of sanctions: The freezing of Russia's foreign currency reserves after the Ukraine invasion spurred other developing economies to diversify their holdings to avoid similar outcomes. Evidence of Demand: Sustained buying trend: Central bank net purchases have surpassed 1,000 tons for four consecutive years, with continued strong demand expected for 2025, according to Reuters. Survey data:
A 2025 World Gold Council survey found that 95% of central banks expected to increase their gold holdings in the coming year, with 75% anticipating a reduction in their dollar reserves, as detailed by Euronews.com. Significant players: The People's Bank of China, along with central banks in countries like Kazakhstan, India, and others in Asia and the Middle East, are leading this extended gold-buying spree, as noted by dV Investment and Euronews.com.
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| PHYSICAL SILVER BEGINNING TO RUN SHORTAGES!! |
| Recent analysis indicates that a global physical silver shortage is developing, driven by years of supply deficits and surging industrial demand. Indicators of a developing shortage: Persistent supply deficits:The global silver market has experienced supply deficits (demand exceeding supply) for the last several years. The deficit for 2025 is projected to be the fifth consecutive one, following a cumulative shortage of 678 million ounces between 2021 and 2024. Declining above-ground inventory: A report from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) noted that silver supplies held in their vaults dropped by 7.5% year-on-year by August 2025, reaching a multi-year low. Increased physical product premiums:Bullion dealers have reported elevated premiums on physical products, like coins and bars, signaling strong retail investor demand and tighter supply of available products. Decreased COMEX and LBMA inventories:Registered silver inventories on the COMEX futures exchange have fallen significantly in recent years. This means less physical silver is available for delivery to those holding futures contracts, a trend that can exacerbate supply concerns. Key factors driving the shortage: Surging industrial demand:Unlike gold, silver has a significant industrial component, which accounts for approximately 50–60% of total annual demand. Renewable energy:The booming solar energy sector is a major consumer of silver, which is used in photovoltaic (PV) cells due to its high electrical conductivity.Electronics and electric vehicles (EVs): Supply constraints:The ability of mining companies to increase output is facing multiple headwinds. Lack of primary silver mining:Around 70% of silver is produced as a byproduct of mining for other metals, such as copper, gold, and lead-zinc. This makes silver supply inelastic, as it does not respond directly to a rise in the silver price. Underinvestment:There has been chronic underinvestment in exploration and development of new silver mines over the past decade. Declining ore grades:At existing mines, the average grade of silver in the ore continues to decline, meaning more material must be processed to get the same amount of silver. Recycling limitations:While recycling provides a portion of the total supply, it is not expanding fast enough to close the deficit gap. Impact on the silver market:The cumulative effect of these factors creates the potential for a "silver squeeze," where a sudden spike in physical demand could overwhelm the limited supply of freely traded silver, leading to sharp price increases. Investor interest has also surged in 2025 due to global uncertainty, inflation, and a flight to safe-haven assets, further tightening the market for physical silver.
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| U.S. GOLD HOLDINGS TOP 1 TRILLION FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER!! |
| The U.S. government's gold holdings surpassed $1 trillion in market value for the first time in history on September 29, 2025, due to a record surge in gold prices that pushed the per-ounce value to over $3,825. Although the physical amount of gold remains constant, its market value has dramatically increased from its long-standing book value of $42.22 per ounce set in 1973. The U.S. Treasury has about 261.5 million ounces of gold, with much of it stored at Fort Knox. Key Details: Gold Holdings:The U.S. holds approximately 261.5 million ounces of gold, or 8,133 tons. Record Gold Price:Gold prices surged to over $3,825 per ounce on Monday, September 29, 2025, a 45% increase year-to-date, according to Angel One. Market Value vs. Book Value:The current market value of U.S. gold reserves is over $1 trillion, while the official, long-held book value is $42.22 per ounce, according to TipRanks. Physical Location:More than half of the gold is stored in Fort Knox, Kentucky, with the rest distributed across the West Point, Denver, and New York Fed vaults. Implications: Financial Impact:
A revaluation of the gold holdings to market prices could potentially "inject" nearly $990 billion into the U.S. Treasury's books. Policy Considerations:
While tempting, this revaluation is not currently being considered, as it could cause liquidity issues and contradict the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening efforts. Historical Precedent:
Other countries, such as Germany, Italy, and South Africa, have revalued their gold reserves in the past. This is if you believe the gold is even there!
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| CHINA ENCOURAGES NATIONS TO DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM THE U.S. DOLLAR!! |
| China is reportedly challenging the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for global gold custody by encouraging central banks in friendly nations to store bullion in China. This move is part of China's broader strategy to reduce the influence of the U.S. dollar and strengthen the yuan's role in the global financial system. China's gold strategy: Shanghai Gold Exchange:China is using its state-controlled Shanghai Gold Exchange to court central banks and offer gold custody services. Encouraging foreign reserves:The People's Bank of China is urging other countries, particularly those in Southeast Asia, to purchase gold and store it within China's borders. Easing import rules:In September 2025, China's central bank began streamlining gold import and export rules. The proposal makes multi-use permits for bullion more flexible and expands the ports that can clear it, making it easier for central banks to move gold in and out of the country. Establishing offshore vaults: In June 2025, China established its first offshore bullion vault in Hong Kong through the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This allows for gold trading in yuan, further promoting the Chinese currency as an alternative to the U.S. dollar. Increased gold holdings:China's central bank has been consistently buying gold for its own reserves, with continuous purchases reported since late 2022. This demonstrates confidence in the metal and supports China's de-dollarization strategy. Implications and context: Competition with the BIS:The BIS, based in Switzerland, serves as a gold custodian for many of the world's central banks. China's efforts pose a direct challenge to the BIS by offering an alternative storage location and trading hub. Diversification away from the dollar:This initiative is part of a wider trend of central banks diversifying their reserves away from the U.S. dollar, especially amid global economic uncertainty. By offering a yuan-based gold trading alternative, China provides another option for countries looking to reduce their reliance on the greenback. Increased global clout:If successful, this move would enhance Beijing's role in the global financial system and increase its influence over the international bullion market. |
| U.S. DOLLAR DOWN MOST SINCE 1973!! |
| The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies dropped about 11% in the first half of this year, the biggest decline in more than 50 years, ending a 15-year bull cycle. Morgan Stanley Research estimates the U.S. currency could lose another 10% by the end of 2026. Despite a recovery of 3.2% in July, the delayed impact of tariffs on growth and unemployment – besides policy uncertainties – are likely to keep negative pressure on the dollar. Foreign investors have been adding hedges to their exposure to U.S. assets, which will likely further weaken the dollar. The U.S. dollar ended the first half of 2025 with its biggest loss since 1973. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies of the U.S.’s major trading partners, fell about 11% from January through the end of June. That decline also marked the end of a structural bull cycle for the dollar, which started in 2010 and ended in 2024 with an accumulated gain of about 40%. Although the currency strengthened 3.2% in July, recovering some of this year’s depreciation, Morgan Stanley Research expects the decline to continue, possibly adding another 10% in losses by the end of next year. “We're likely at the intermission rather than the finale,”says David Adams, head of G10 FX Strategy at Morgan Stanley.
Although the currency strengthened 3.2% in July, recovering some of this year’s depreciation, Morgan Stanley Research expects the decline to continue, possibly adding another 10% in losses by the end of next year.
“The second act for the dollar’s weakening should come over the next 12 months, as U.S. interest rates and growth converge with those of the rest of the world.”
The U.S. currency depreciation could have significant impacts for consumers, businesses, investors and ultimately for the overall economy: It would be more expensive for Americans to travel abroad. U.S. assets could be less compelling for foreign investors. Import prices could rise, putting pressure on inflation. The prices of everything are about to rise as the government devalues the dollar. Your purchasing power are about to drop significantly prepare yourself!!
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| TARIFFS TO CAUSE HIGHER PRICE INFLATION AS COUNTRIES RETALIATE!! |
| When countries impose tariffs on each other, triggering a "trade war," it typically leads to higher prices for consumers
. While the tariffs are directly paid by importing businesses, companies frequently pass these extra costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Recent examples of this economic dynamic include the tariff escalations that have occurred between the U.S. and major trading partners in 2025. The ripple effect of tariffs: The imposition of tariffs creates a cascading effect that raises costs throughout the supply chain and for consumers: Importers bear the initial cost:A tariff is a tax on imports that is paid to the government by the domestic company that imports the good. To cover this additional cost, the importing company often raises its prices. Higher prices for consumers:Research confirms that these higher costs are often passed on to the public. For example, a 2019 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that U.S. tariffs on imported washing machines led to a significant price increase for consumers, including on domestically produced alternatives. A 2025 estimate from Yale's Budget Lab projected that recent tariffs could result in over $3,800 in additional costs per year for the average U.S. household. Price increases on domestic goods:Tariffs can also drive up the prices of domestically produced goods. This can occur when domestic companies raise prices because of reduced foreign competition or when they use imported parts or raw materials that have been hit with tariffs. Foreign retaliation:When a country imposes tariffs, its trading partners often retaliate with tariffs of their own on the country's exports. This can hurt a country's exporters and make its products more expensive for foreign consumers. During the trade escalations of 2025, for instance, China, Canada, and the European Union all imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. Disrupted supply chains:Tariffs can disrupt global supply chains, pushing companies to find new suppliers or change their manufacturing processes, which can increase costs and cause delays. |
| SILVER IN THE SHADOW OF BREAKING ITS ALL TIME HIGH!! |
| Silver's historical all-time high: Silver's all-time high is approximately $50 per ounce, reached in 1980 and again in 2011. Some analysts note that if the 1980 price is adjusted for inflation, it would be much higher today, putting the $50 level in perspective. Recent market performance (2025): Significant rally:In 2025, silver has shown extraordinary strength. By September, its price had climbed over 40% year-to-date, reaching its highest level in nearly 14 years and breaking past $41 per ounce. Analysts surpass targets:By late 2025, silver's rally had already exceeded the price targets of several major banks, including Citi, J.P. Morgan, and Saxo Bank, who had previously issued bullish outlooks. Expert bullishness:Some analysts are predicting silver will not only revisit but break its previous all-time high in the near future. One expert suggested it could "recast" the $50 high within one month and break through to new highs in the following year. Key drivers for a potential new high: Surging industrial demand:Over half of the annual silver demand comes from industrial uses, particularly in electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles. Growing momentum behind "green energy" has significantly increased demand for silver in solar photovoltaics. Supply deficits:The silver market is currently experiencing significant supply shortfalls, which could be the sixth consecutive year of deficit in 2025. This imbalance provides solid support for higher prices. Inflation hedging and geopolitical risk:Silver is viewed as a safe-haven asset, similar to gold. In times of economic uncertainty, investors often move into precious metals to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, pushing prices higher. The gold-to-silver ratio:Silver often lags behind gold during a bull market but can catch up with larger percentage gains. A historically high gold-to-silver ratio (meaning silver is cheap relative to gold) suggests silver has significant room to run as the ratio normalizes. |
| LARGEST DOWNWARD JOBS REVISION SINCE THE 2009 FINANCIAL CRISIS - 911,000!! |
| The largest jobs revision since the 2009 financial crisis occurred in September 2025 when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down job growth for the year ending March 2025 by 911,000 jobs. This preliminary benchmark revision was the largest in percentage terms since 2009, reflecting large shifts in the economy. The revision pointed to a weaker labor market than previously estimated, particularly due to the pandemic and subsequent shifts in the economy. Details of the Revision: Magnitude:The 2025 revision lowered the estimated number of jobs added in the year through March 2025 by 911,000. Comparison:This was the largest downward revision in percentage terms since the Great Recession in 2009. Context:The revision followed concerns about the labor market and is likely to reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Reasons for the Revision: Government Models:. The revision highlights issues with the BLS's models, especially concerning the "birth-death of businesses" component, which became less accurate in the pandemic's wake. Implications: Weaker Job Market:The revision indicates that the job market was weaker than initially thought, with job creation slowing significantly. Interest Rate Cuts:The weaker job market data provides a stronger case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Sectoral Impact:While widespread, the revision was particularly notable in the services sector, including leisure and hospitality, retail, and the information sector.
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| GOLD AND SILVER UP 40 PERCENT IN 2025!! |
| Reports from August and September 2025 indicate that gold and silver prices have indeed surged by approximately 40% year-over-year, with some sources even noting a more specific figure of around 40-44%. This rise is attributed to increased investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising inflation, geopolitical instability, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and economic leadership. Key Drivers for the Silver Rally: Industrial Demand:The rapid expansion of the solar industry and the continued electrification of vehicles are significant drivers of silver demand. Supply Deficit:The silver market has been in a consistent deficit since 2021, with demand outpacing supply, creating a tight market. Institutional Interest:Large funds and investors are increasingly seeking exposure to the silver market, which has a relatively small size, meaning even small allocations can significantly impact prices. Geopolitical Factors: Geopolitical tensions and the potential for global economic uncertainty can also make silver an attractive safe-haven asset. Key Details about Gold's 2025 Performance: Inflationary Concerns and Rate Cuts:Widespread expectations of central bank interest rate cuts have fueled gold's performance. Geopolitical Uncertainty:Unpredictable geopolitical events and trade policy changes have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Investor Interest:Investors are increasingly viewing gold as a stable financial asset for protecting wealth during economic turbulence and inflationary periods. Record Highs:The price of gold closed at an all-time high in early September 2025, demonstrating its strong upward momentum.
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| PRODUCER PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE, INCREASES WILL BE PASSED DOWN TO THE CONSUMER!! |
| US producer prices, as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), continued to rise in the latest reporting period (July 2025), with the final demand index up 3.3% for the year, the largest 12-month increase in months. This acceleration was driven by significant price increases for both goods and services, with wholesale services prices rising by the most in three years, and economists suggesting it indicates businesses are increasingly passing on costs related to tariffs and other factors to consumers. Final Demand PPI:Increased 3.3% for the 12 months ending July 2025, the largest annual increase since February 2025. Monthly Increase:Producer prices rose 0.9% in July, the biggest monthly jump since June 2022. Services Surge:Prices for final demand services increased 4.0% year-over-year, and wholesale services costs rose 1.1% for the month. Goods Performance:Prices for final demand goods rose 1.9% year-over-year. What This Means:Increased Business Costs:The PPI measures prices from the producer's perspective, so rising prices indicate higher costs for businesses. Potential Consumer Impact:Businesses may pass these increased costs, including those from tariffs, onto consumers in the form of higher prices for goods and services. Economic Implications:The rise in producer prices, particularly for services, is a sign that inflation may still pose a threat to the economy and could influence future interest rate decisions.
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| SILVER GOES OVER 40$ AN OZ FOR FIRST TIME SINCE SEPTEMBER 2011!! |
| The last time silver was over $40 per ounce was in September 2011, with a brief surge above $40 in September 2025 reaching prices like $40.72/oz, its highest point since 2011. Key Dates & Prices: April 2011: Silver hit its all-time high at nearly $49.51 per ounce. Factors Influencing Silver's Price: Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts can boost silver prices. Weakening Dollar: A weaker U.S. dollar also provides momentum for precious metals like silver. 1980: Silver reached a historic all-time high of nearly $50 per ounce in January of 1980.
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| U.S. ADDS SILVER TO CRITICAL RESERVES LIST!! |
| The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Department of the Interior added silver to a draft list of critical minerals on August 26, 2025, to support clean energy and national security goals by securing supply chains and boosting domestic production. Silver's inclusion recognizes its vital role in technologies like solar panels and electronics, where demand is high and U.S. import dependence is significant. The draft list, which also added copper, potash, rehnium, silicon, and lead, is open for public comment before a final version is published in about a month.Why Silver Was Added
Clean Energy:Silver is crucial for manufacturing photovoltaic cells for solar panels, a key part of the U.S.'s clean energy transition. Technology:It is also used in electronics, electrical contacts, and advanced technologies, increasing its industrial demand. Supply Chain Vulnerability:The U.S. imports most of its silver, with domestic production meeting only about 30% of its demand, creating a potential vulnerability that the critical mineral designation aims to address. Implications of Critical StatusInclusion on the list can stimulate domestic production and encourage stockpiling from both governments and investors. Geopolitical Importance: It signals a strategic effort to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and strengthen domestic capabilities, which could have geopolitical implications as other nations respond. K.K.
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| GLOBAL DEBT BREAKS 100 TRILLION BREAKING ALL TIME RECORD AND IS SET TO SOAR!! |
| Global debt, both public and private, is soaring due to increased government spending during the pandemic and ongoing economic pressures, with global public debt projected to reach nearly 100% of global GDP by 2030. This rising debt is creating significant fiscal challenges and burdens for many countries, particularly developing nations, where interest payments are now exceeding spending on essential services like health and education. Factors contributing to this trend include high defense spending, social support demands, tight financial conditions, and geopolitical tensions, making future stability a major concern, according to the IMF and UNCTAD. Key Figures & Projections:Global Public Debt:Reached a record $102 trillion in 2024. Global Public Debt to GDP:Could hit 99.6% of global GDP by 2030. Impact on Developing Countries:In 2024, 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on debt interest than on health or education. Causes of Soaring Debt:Pandemic-Related Spending:Governments borrowed heavily to provide fiscal support during the COVID-19 crisis. Economic Pressures:Ongoing economic challenges are contributing to increased national debt. Rising Defense Spending:Many countries face increasing needs for defense expenditures. Tightening Financial Conditions:High interest rates and other financial pressures increase the cost of servicing debt. Geopolitical Tensions:Trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts contribute to worsening economic prospects. Consequences of High Debt:Reduced Fiscal Space:Debt constrains a government's ability to invest in essential services and economic development.Increased Vulnerability:Countries with high debt are more exposed to economic shocks and financial instability. Austerity Measures:To manage debt, some governments may resort to budget cuts or tax increases, which can have negative social and economic impacts. Outlook:The upward trend in global public debt is expected to continue through 2030.
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| GOLD IS UP 4778% SINCE LEAVING THE GOLD STANDARD IN 1971!! |
| President Richard Nixon's actions in 1971 to end dollar convertibility to gold and implement wage/price controls were intended to address the international dilemma of a looming gold run and the domestic problem of inflation. The new economic policy marked the beginning of the end of the Bretton Woods international monetary system. Long-Term Trend:Gold has shown a strong long-term upward trend since the end of the Gold Standard. For example, one analysis found that gold's annualized return from 1971 to 2023 was approximately 7.9%. Another reported average annual returns of 8.4% since 1971. "Nixon Shock" and Initial Surge:The "Nixon Shock" of August 1971, which ended the convertibility of the dollar to gold, triggered a significant increase in gold prices during the 1970s. Gold's value was around $42.22 per ounce in 1971 and reached highs of $850 in 1980. More Recent Performance:In more recent years, gold has continued to demonstrate strong performance, with average annual returns of 13.8% in 2023 and over 28% in 2024. In fact, gold reached new all-time highs several times in 2024 and 2025. Monetizing $5.2 trillion in COVID relief increases our money supply by 27% and comes on top of $4.5 trillion in QE (Quantitative Easing). Add another $2 trillion in planned infrastructure spending and we have $13 trillion in new money, which is a 35% increase in paper money in circulation and 60% of GDP. It's a lot of paper. |
| U.S. HOUSEHOLD DEBT HITS ALL TIME HIGH!! |
| United States household debt reached a new high of $18.39 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. This represents a $185 billion increase from the previous quarter and a $4.24 trillion increase since the end of 2019. Mortgages: $12.94 trillion Auto loans: $1.66 trillion Student loan balances: $1.64 trillion Credit card debt: $1.21 trillion Home equity lines of credit (HELOC): $411 billion Other balances (retail cards, consumer finance loans): $540 billion. Rising Delinquency Rates: While the overall increase in household debt is significant, several sources indicate that delinquency rates remain elevated, raising concerns about potential financial stress for some households. Aggregate delinquency rates reached 4.4% in the second quarter of 2025, a slight increase from the previous quarter. Student loan delinquencies: Increased significantly, with 12.88% of balances moving into serious delinquency (90+ days past due). This surge is attributed to the resumption of reporting previously unreported missed payments from 2020 to 2024. Credit card and auto loan delinquencies: Remained largely stable, with rates of 6.93% and 2.93% respectively. Potential implications: Impact on spending and growth:Elevated debt levels, particularly high-interest debt like credit cards, can reduce households' disposable income, potentially leading to slower consumer spending and, consequently, slower economic growth. Fed's balancing act: The Federal Reserve faces a challenge in navigating high debt levels. Raising interest rates to combat inflation could make debt repayment even more difficult, while not raising rates could allow inflation to worsen. Vulnerability of certain groups:Younger households, particularly those with significant student loan debt, and lower-income households with limited access to affordable credit, may be particularly vulnerable to rising debt and potential delinquencies. Strain on financial institutions:Increased delinquencies can lead to losses for banks and credit unions, potentially impacting their profitability and willingness to lend, which could further restrict credit access for consumers. |
| U.S. GOVERNMENT QUIETLY REVISING JOBS NUMBERS MASSIVELY LOWER!! |
| The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently revised its job growth numbers downward for May and June, resulting in a combined reduction of 258,000 jobs. This significant revision, particularly the largest two-month revision outside of recessions, led to the firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer by President Trump. The revisions, which brought down the average monthly job gains from May through July to a low 35,000, have sparked controversy and raised questions about the accuracy and potential manipulation of government data. Significant Downward Revision:The BLS revised down job growth for May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs, according to USA Today. Impact on Average Monthly Gains:This revision significantly lowered the average monthly job gains from May through July to a mere 35,000, according to Reuters. Largest Revision Outside Recessions:The two-month revision is the largest outside of recessionary periods in recent history, according to USA Today. Industry Breakdown:The largest downward revision occurred in professional and business services, with 358,000 jobs cut, according to SHRM. Other sectors with significant downward revisions include leisure and hospitality (-150,000), retail (-129,000), and manufacturing (-115,000), according to SHRM. President Trump's Response:President Trump publicly criticized the revised numbers, alleging they were "rigged" and intended to negatively impact his administration, according to USA Today. Firing of BLS Commissioner:He subsequently fired the BLS Commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, according to The Wall Street Journal.
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| U.S. IMPOSES 39 PERCENT TARIFF ON SWITZERLAND AFFECTING GOLD PRICE AND AVAILABILITY!! |
| The 39% tariff imposed by the US on Swiss goods is expected to significantly affect the gold market, particularly impacting Swiss gold exports to the US. Here's why: Disruption of Swiss Gold Exports: Switzerland is a major global gold refining center and a significant supplier of gold bars to the US futures market. The 39% tariff on one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, as clarified by US Customs and Border Protection, makes exporting gold from Switzerland to the US economically unviable. This has led to uncertainty among Swiss gold refineries, with some reportedly slowing or halting shipments to the US. Impact on Global Gold Flow:This tariff disrupts the established flow of gold from London to Switzerland (for refining) and then to New York, according to DataDrivenInvestor. The tariffs could affect global gold trading patterns and potentially create price volatility in markets like India, a significant gold consumer. Potential for Price Volatility:US gold futures prices saw a significant jump after the tariff news, reaching record highs, according to AInvest. The disruption to the usual supply chain could contribute to further price fluctuations and potentially create premiums for US gold futures compared to international spot prices. Switzerland's Stance and Future Negotiations:Switzerland has strongly expressed disagreement with the tariffs and is pursuing further discussions with the US government to find a resolution, according to CNBC. In conclusion, while the long-term impact is yet to be fully determined, the 39% tariff has already had a significant and negative effect on the trade of gold between Switzerland and the US, causing uncertainty and price fluctuations in the global gold market.
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| U.S. NATIONAL DEBT PAYMENTS NOW EXCEEDS 1 TRILLION ANUALLY!! |
| Yes, US national debt interest payments have exceeded $1 trillion in recent years and are projected to continue rising, according to various sources like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. 2024The US Treasury Department reported spending over $1.133 trillion in gross interest payments on the national debt in FY2024. After accounting for the interest the government earns on its investments, net interest payments totaled $881 billion. 2025 Projections:The CBO projects net interest costs to reach $952 billion in FY2025 and rise to $1 trillion in 2026. Over the next decade (2025-2034):CBO projections indicate that net interest payments will total $13.8 trillion, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Why are interest payments increasing?Growing National Debt:The national debt has increased significantly! Rising Interest Rates:The Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation have led to higher interest rates, making it more expensive for the government to borrow, according to Harvest Investment Strategies. What are the implications of rising interest payments? Crowding Out Other Spending:Rising interest payments consume a larger portion of the federal budget, potentially crowding out funding for other priorities like infrastructure, education, or healthcare, says the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Economic Impact:High debt levels can impact economic growth by potentially reducing the capital available for private investment and driving up interest rates for businesses and households, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center. In conclusion, the US is facing a growing challenge with rising interest payments on the national debt, which is projected to continue increasing in the coming years and will likely have significant consequences for the federal budget and the economy as a whole. |
| SILVER PRICE HITTING ALL TIME HIGHS IN MAJOR WORLD CURRENCIES!! |
| Silver prices have recently hit all-time highs in some currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Indian Rupee, Russian Ruble, and African Rand. This surge is driven by a combination of factors, including the impact of US trade tariffs on industrial metals, increased investment demand, and concerns about inflation. Increased Investment Demand:Investors are seeking safe-haven assets due to economic uncertainty and potential currency debasement, with silver benefiting from this trend. Industrial Demand:Silver's dual role as both a precious and industrial metal is also contributing to the price increase, as it's used in various technologies and batteries. It's important to note that silver is running a deficit for the fifth consecutive year while demand is increasing. In the past, silver has seen significant price surges during times of economic instability and inflation fears, with the Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the market in 1980 and the 2011 rally being notable examples. The current surge is driven by a complex interplay of these historical factors and new dynamics in the global economy.
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| U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT NEARING 2 TRILLION ANNUALLY!! |
| US budget deficit: an overview The US budget deficit represents the difference between the federal government's total spending and its total revenue in a given fiscal year. The federal government has run a deficit every year since 2002. Latest figures: Fiscal Year (FY) 2024: The federal deficit reached $1.83 trillion, up $138 billion from the previous year. This marks the fifth consecutive year with a deficit exceeding $1 trillion. As a percentage of GDP, the FY2024 deficit was 6.3%. The projected federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is $1.9 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This is equivalent to 6.2% of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP). This deficit is projected to remain relatively flat as a percentage of GDP over the next decade. Deficit:The projected $1.9 trillion deficit for FY2025 is close to the $1.8 trillion deficit recorded in FY2024. Long-term Outlook:Over the next decade, the annual deficit is projected to rise to $2.5 trillion but remain relatively flat as a percentage of GDP (around 6%). Reasons for the Deficit:The deficit is driven by increased spending on Social Security, Medicare, and rising net interest costs.
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| NEW ELECTRIC CAR BATTERY COULD CONSUME HALF OF THE ANNUAL SILVER PRODUCTION!! |
| New solid-state EV batteries, particularly those using a silver-carbon composite like Samsung's, could significantly increase silver demand. Estimates suggest that a typical 100 kWh solid-state battery pack could use approximately 1 kilogram (1000 grams) of silver. This is due to the use of silver in the anode of these batteries, which contributes to their high energy density and other performance benefits. Silver per battery cell:Each battery cell is estimated to require around 5 grams of silver. Silver per vehicle:With a typical 100 kWh battery pack containing multiple cells, the total silver needed per vehicle could be around 1 kilogram. Impact on silver supply:If a significant portion of global EV production adopts this technology, the demand for silver could increase substantially. One analysis suggests that if 20% of global car production switches to these batteries, it could translate to an additional 16,000 metric tons of silver demand annually, according to Legacy Farmers Cooperative. Global silver productionCurrent global silver production is around 25,000-26,000 metric tons per year, making the potential impact of solid-state EV batteries significant.
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| THE REAL NATIONAL DEBT IS $73 to $175 TRILLION!! |
| The United States' national debt, when considering unfunded liabilities, is significantly larger than the headline debt figure. While the national debt (debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings) is around $37.1 trillion, unfunded liabilities, primarily related to Social Security and Medicare, add trillions more, potentially reaching $73.2 to $175.3 trillion or more, according to Cato Institute and Open The Books. This means the true debt burden is many times larger than what is typically reported. National Debt (headline figure): This is the publicly reported debt and includes both debt held by the public (like Treasury bonds held by investors) and intragovernmental holdings (like Social Security trust funds holding government debt). Unfunded Liabilities:These are promises the government has made for future spending (primarily Social Security and Medicare) where the funds to cover those promises have not yet been secured. Estimates of total liabilities:The Financial Report of the United States Government estimates unfunded obligations at $73.2 trillion. Other estimates, such as those from Open The Books, put the figure closer to $175.3 trillion, according to Truth in Accounting. Drivers of unfunded liabilities:Medicare and Social Security are the primary drivers of these unfunded obligations, according to the Cato Institute. Implications:The large gap between the reported national debt and the total liabilities creates significant long-term fiscal challenges for the U.S.
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| TEXAS MAKES GOLD AND SILVER MONEY WITH HR BILL 1056!! |
| Texas has recently enacted legislation, House Bill 1056, that allows residents to use gold and silver as legal tender for everyday transactions. This bill designates precious metals as legal tender and enables Texans to use their gold and silver holdings, stored in the Texas Bullion Depository, for payments through electronic systems. Legal Tender Status:House Bill 1056 designates gold and silver as legal tender in Texas. Texas Bullion Depository:The law utilizes the existing Texas Bullion Depository for storing and managing gold and silver holdings. Electronic Transactions:Texans can use their gold and silver holdings for payments through electronic systems like debit cards and mobile apps. Valuation:The state comptroller's office will determine the market value of the precious metals for transactions. Implementation:The law is set to take effect on May 1, 2027, allowing for a phased implementation of the new system. |
| U.S. DOLLAR HAS LOST 97 PERCENT OF ITS VALUE SINCE 1913!! |
| Specifically, since 1913, the dollar has lost about 97% of its purchasing power. This means that something that cost $1 in 1913 would cost about $30 today. Long-term decline:
The US dollar has experienced a long-term trend of losing purchasing power due to inflation. Specific figures: The dollar has lost approximately 97% of its purchasing power since 1913. Impact of inflation:This loss of purchasing power is largely attributed to inflation, which erodes the value of the dollar over time. The dollar itself has undergone many changes since its inception, not only in face but in substance. Having been removed from the gold standard by President Nixon in 1971 the dollar began to function as a unit of debt rather than an asset. This allowed inflation, fractional reserve banking, and added many other "middlemen" to the monetary system.
This allows for the formation and rise of what we "lovingly" refer to today as the private banking cartel. The Bureau of Engraving and Printing: an arm of the treasury, designs and produces all U.S. paper money. The Federal reserve then distributes this currency to banks and the public. They collect interest on money distributed, service charges, and new bank loans. Even Jerome Powell, the current head of the Federal Reserve, has mentioned in interviews that the current method of servicing our national debt is unsustainable. Because of the private banking sector, just the interest payments by themselves on our 37 Trillion dollar national debt accounts for 39 Percent of our GDP as a country. |
| DON'T BE A FINANCIAL VICTIM!! |
| Our country is vastly different today versus where we were 30 years ago. One area that we have seen a massive increase in is the ability for people around the world to scam people, thank you MR. Internet! We would like to broaden this topic as it applies to precious metals. As the metals have increased dramatically over the last 10 years, it has become more of a target for scammers. In addition, millions of new investors have turned to precious metals as part of their investment portfolios. It is CRITICALLY important that investors understand and take the necessary precautions to make sure who you are dealing with and where you are storing your investments. A few things that should be considered are as follows: (1). Visit local dealers and find one that best accommodates your needs; pricing, delivery, paperwork, established business, referrals, etc. (2). Verify that the product is real, find a dealer that will test the product in front of you when you take delivery. (3). Do not share with friends and neighbors about your purchases, most thefts transpire from a conversation. In other words, you tell someone you trust, but then they tell someone and it leaks out from there. Before you know it, a break-in occurs. IT'S ON YOU to keep it tight-lipped and your products securely stored/hidden away. Only your closest relatives (child, parent, etc.) or significant other should be aware as a backup, to where you store your precious metals, and they need to be sworn to secrecy! (4). If you are going to use a depository to store your product, make sure it really exists, seriously, what are the storage costs, in writing you want the EXACT same product back that you stored with them to begin with! Trust us when we say that scammers are winning today because people are just too trusting. Check and double check everything you do, ask questions, be informed and do your homework, it will save you from a potential catastrophic financial disaster!! |
| MANY COUNTRIES DUMPING THE U.S. DOLLAR!! |
| As of May 2025, many countries have taken steps to reduce or eliminate their reliance on the US dollar in international trade and finance. This global shift, known as de-dollarisation, is driven by various economic, political, and strategic factors. De-dollarisation refers to the process by which countries reduce their dependence on the US dollar for international transactions, reserves, and trade settlements. This shift is often motivated by a desire to achieve greater economic sovereignty, mitigate exposure to US monetary policy, and circumvent potential sanctions. Motivations Behind De-Dollarisation. Economic Sanctions and Political Pressure Countries like Russia and Iran have faced extensive US sanctions, prompting them to seek alternatives to the dollar to safeguard their economies. By conducting trade in local currencies or other major currencies, they aim to reduce the impact of such sanctions. Diversification of Foreign Exchange Reserves Central banks are diversifying their reserves to include a mix of currencies, such as the euro, Chinese yuan, and gold, to mitigate risks associated with holding large amounts of US dollars. Development of Alternative Payment Systems To decrease dependence on US-controlled financial systems like SWIFT, nations are creating their own payment infrastructures. For example, Russia has launched the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), while China has developed the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). Russia: In response to extensive US sanctions, Russia has accelerated its de-dollarisation efforts, promoting the use of the ruble and other currencies in trade. Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine. These nations are shifting towards local currencies and alternative financial systems to enhance economic sovereignty and reduce exposure to US policies. BRICS Nations and New Entrants The BRICS bloc—comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has been at the forefront of de-dollarisation: China: Promoting the yuan in international trade and establishing currency swap agreements to facilitate transactions without the dollar. India and Brazil: Exploring bilateral trade agreements in local currencies to reduce dollar dependence. In 2025, BRICS expanded to include: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand: Southeast Asian nations seeking greater financial autonomy. Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan: Countries aiming to diversify their economic partnerships and reduce reliance on Western financial systems. In conclusion, de-dollarisation is gaining momentum in 2025, with several countries actively reducing their reliance on the US dollar.
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| CENTRAL BANKS NOW OWN 1/5 OF ALL GOLD EVER MINED!! |
| Central banks collectively own a significant portion of the total gold ever mined, accounting for approximately 17%. Key points about central bank gold holdings: Growing reserves: Global central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with recent years seeing record purchase levels. Reasons for holding gold: Central banks are motivated by risk mitigation, inflation hedging, and promoting economic stability. Safe haven asset: Gold's perceived role as a safe haven asset, especially during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, is a major driver of central bank demand. Diversification: Central banks also see gold as a way to diversify their reserves, particularly away from U.S. dollar holdings. Reflecting the growing importance of gold in global reserve management strategies. |
| GOLD TO SILVER RATIO NEAR HISTORIC HIGHS!! |
| What the ratio means:
The gold-to-silver ratio is the number of silver ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold. The gold-to-silver ratio is currently elevated, meaning gold is more expensive relative to silver than it has been historically. While not at its absolute highest point (which occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic), it is near the higher end of its historical range. This suggests that silver may be undervalued relative to gold, making it potentially a good time to buy silver. During this extreme ratio of gold to silver, we saw a ratio fluctuation from the high of 114 back to 65 within a year! Those who bought silver during this high ratio were rewarded with larger gains as well as an opportunity to reinvest their profited silver back into gold as the ratio evened. This is a smart money move using market conditions to ones advantage. Current levels:
The current ratio (90) is significantly higher than the long-term average (around 40), indicating that gold is relatively expensive compared to silver. Investment implications:
A high ratio suggests that silver might be undervalued, potentially offering a buying opportunity, according to some financial websites. Conversely, a low ratio might indicate that gold is relatively cheaper and a good time to invest. Extreme levels:
Historically, when the ratio has been very high, it has often been followed by silver outperforming gold.
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| COMEX SEEING RECORD DELIVERIES IN SILVER!! |
| COMEX silver deliveries have recently reached unprecedented levels, with May 2025 seeing the third-highest delivery volume on record. This surge is partly due to a significant increase in net new contracts that are settled for immediate delivery, indicating strong physical demand. The 12-month moving average of COMEX silver deliveries has also surpassed its previous peak from early 2021. Record-breaking May:
The May COMEX silver contract saw a massive surge in deliveries, with some reports indicating over 16,000 contracts being settled for physical delivery which is up from the 9,044 COMEX silver contracts delivered in May 2025. Further more, on average, a typical delivery month sees about 3,000-4,000 deliveries.
Net New Contracts:
A substantial portion of the delivery volume is attributed to net new contracts, where investors open positions and immediately request physical delivery.
Rising Inventories:
While deliveries are high, COMEX silver inventories have also seen an increase, with some reports indicating a surge in inventory levels.
Implications:
The surge in deliveries, coupled with rising physical demand, suggests a potential shift in the market, potentially signaling higher prices for silver. |
| CHINA BUYING GOLD AND SILVER MINES WORLDWIDE!! |
| International Acquisitions:
Chinese firms are expanding gold mining operations in Africa, particularly in South Africa and Ghana, which are the continent's largest gold exporters.
China-African Precious Metals Company (CAPM) is investing in gold mining in South Africa, including revitalizing a gold processing plant in the Witwatersrand basin.
In October 2024, China's Zijin Mining acquired the Akyem gold mine project in Ghana from Newmont Corp for $1 billion.
Zijin Mining has also been involved in other international deals, including acquisitions in Canada, Colombia, and Guyana.
Beyond gold, China has shown strong interest in acquiring critical minerals, with companies like Zijin Mining acquiring stakes in lithium miners, according to Bloomberg.
Chinese entities own or have stakes in nearly all of the producing cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Chinese mining and battery companies have invested $4.5 billion in lithium mines in the past two years, significantly contributing to lithium projects in Africa. Reasons for Acquisitions:
Diversification of reserves: China's central bank is diversifying its reserves, reducing reliance on the US dollar and increasing its gold holdings.
Geopolitical and economic uncertainties: Global uncertainties contribute to central banks, including China's, adding gold to their holdings.
"Gold for Infrastructure" initiative: China is securing mining rights through agreements that exchange infrastructure development for long-term gold supply.
Securing critical minerals: China is strategically acquiring mines globally, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean, to secure access to critical minerals for its industries and military modernization.
De-dollarization efforts: China's gold accumulation aligns with efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar.
Industrial demand for silver: China's rapid industrialization and a growing renewable energy sector are driving demand for silver, which is a key component in electronics, batteries, and solar panels. |
| CENTRAL BANKS REPATRIATING THEIR GOLD |
| Central banks are increasingly repatriating gold, bringing it back to their domestic vaults, and also significantly increasing their gold purchases. This trend is driven by a combination of factors, including geopolitical instability, concerns about the US dollar, and a desire to diversify reserve assets. Reasons for Repatriation and Increased Purchases: Geopolitical Uncertainty: The invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the subsequent sanctions, highlighted the risks associated with holding assets in foreign countries, particularly those perceived as potential adversaries. This led many countries to repatriate their gold, bringing it back under their direct control. Dollar Concerns: Some central banks are reducing their reliance on the US dollar and diversifying their reserves into gold, citing concerns about potential inflation and the stability of the dollar. Diversification: Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and a store of value, providing a hedge against economic uncertainty and potential financial crises. Increased Confidence in Gold: As more central banks repatriate and accumulate gold, it creates a positive feedback loop, reinforcing the perception of gold as a valuable and reliable asset.
Examples of Repatriation: Germany, Netherlands, India, and Poland among others.
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| STATES MAKING GOLD AND SILVER MONEY AGAIN!! |
| Several states have enacted legislation that acknowledges gold and silver as legal tender or have removed sales taxes on these precious metals: Florida : Has the most comprehensive legislation, allowing electronically transacted gold and silver as legal tender alongside the dollar starting in 2026. Utah: Was the first state to pass the Utah Legal Tender Act in 2011.
Wyoming : In 2018, established a law to eliminate the taxation of gold and silver bullion, effectively treating them as tender free from sales tax.
Oklahoma: Recognizes gold and silver U.S.-minted coins as legal tender and exempts them from taxation through Senate Bill 862.
Louisiana: Reaffirmed gold and silver as legal tender in 2024.
Other States: Arizona, Kansas, South Carolina, and Texas have also recognized gold and silver as legal tender. States with Bills Recognizing Gold and Silver as Legal Tender:Missouri: A bill for an income tax deduction for capital gains from the exchange of gold and silver is currently being considered.
Indiana: Introduced Senate Bill 99 to declare US-minted gold and silver coins as legal tender and tax-exempt.
Tennessee: Is waiting for the outcome of Senate Bill 0350 which calls for the sales tax exemption of gold and silver coins. States with Goldbacks: Utah, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Florida: Have Goldbacks, which are a form of voluntary local currency with intricate designs crafted from 24-karat gold.
Oklahoma and Arizona: Are working to introduce Goldback series. |
| U.S. BANKS CALLING FOR HIGHER GOLD AND SILVER PRICES!! |
| Several U.S. banks and financial institutions are forecasting higher prices for gold and silver, particularly for 2025 and beyond. Bank of America: Has the most aggressive stance, calling for $4,000 gold and $40 silver by late 2025 or early 2026, citing factors like structural de-dollarization and reserve diversification. J.P. Morgan: Predicts gold prices to reach $3,675/oz by the end of 2025 and exceed $4,000/oz by Q2 2026. They also forecast silver prices to rise towards $39/oz by the end of 2025. J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citi Bank among others are also calling for both Gold and Silver to rise in price. Strong Central Bank Purchases : Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are consistently buying large quantities of gold, adding over 1,200 tonnes to their reserves in 2024 alone. This trend is expected to continue.
Increased Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Uncertainty : Gold and silver are seen as safe-haven assets during times of global instability, recession fears, and policy uncertainty.
Silver's Dual Role: Silver benefits from both monetary appeal and its crucial role in industrial production, particularly in growing sectors like solar and battery technology.
De-dollarization: Some experts see gold as a hedge against a potential decline in the U.S. dollar's reserve status.
Inflation Concerns: Concerns about persistent inflation pressures and fiscal sustainability in major economies create a favorable macroeconomic environment for precious metals. |
| BRICK NATIONS BUYING RECORD AMOUNTS OF GOLD!! |
| The gold price has continued reaching record highs throughout consecutive weeks, and experts see a clear connection to the massive gold purchases from the BRICS nations. China, in particular, has acquired over 2,800 tons of gold in the last two years, and other BRICS countries have also significantly increased their gold reserves. Gold is being heavily purchased around the world to diversify from the U.S.dollar. |
| SILVER HITS HIGHEST PRICE IN 13 YEARS!! |
| Silver briefly reached $37 per ounce this June 2025. It had previously seen levels around $37 in February of 2012. Prior to that, in April of 2011, silver's price rose to a high of $48.70. June 2025: Silver is reaching its highest level in over 13 years due to industrial demand and supply deficit. With the recent physical shortages at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) expect the price to continue it's upward trend. We here at CR Gold and Silver are seeing record amounts of silver sales! |
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7511 Boulevard 26, North Richland Hills, TX 76180 (817) 485-2646 |
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